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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MoneyPenny who wrote (6436)	5/15/2006 8:26:57 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217632

<<Chanchu ... strike>> ... sigh ... plans may have to be changed, engagements postponed, meeting rescheduled ... and WORK FROM HOME, because it's TYPHOON DAY !!! BTW, a Stratfor post Another Spiral in the Plame Affair? Rumors are swarming that Karl Rove either has been or will be indicted over the Valerie Plame affair. And it appears now that Patrick Fitzgerald, the special prosecutor in the case, is looking at Vice President Dick Cheney's role in the matter. The rumors on Rove stem from his fourth appearance before a grand jury and reports of extended meetings between Fitzgerald and Rove's lawyers. The information on Cheney originated in a court filing by Fitzgerald, noting that the vice president made handwritten comments on a copy of an op-ed piece written by Plame's husband, Joseph Wilson. We can't verify that Rove has been or will be indicted, although by Washington rules, the specificity and breadth of the rumors tend to make us think they are true. Being called in front of a grand jury four times does not bode well for the witness. It is not clear what Fitzgerald is trying to do with the Cheney material, nor what was discussed for several hours with Rove's attorneys. Normally, indictments are used to squeeze the defendant to plea-bargain for a reduced sentence, in return for testimony against bigger fish. But there are precious few fish as big as Karl Rove in Washington. The only one, apart from the president, is Cheney. If Fitzgerald were not trying to squeeze Rove, there would have been no reason for a personal meeting between him and Rove's attorneys. There are lots of speculative links here, but at this point speculation is warranted. We don't know that Rove is indicted, but it seems likely that he is or will be shortly. It is not clear that Cheney has done anything wrong, but if not, Rove is the top of the food chain: Indict and be done with it. So, let's engage in empty speculation and wonder what would happen if Cheney were indicted in this matter. The precedent is Spiro Agnew, vice president to Richard Nixon. Now, Agnew was not operating in the gray zone of the law. He was taking money from developers while serving as vice president. But assume that the Agnew precedent plays out. Agnew left office under a plea bargain that spared him from prison. Suppose there was a plea bargain that allowed Cheney, who has a bad heart, to resign for health reasons. Or make it simple: Just assume that Cheney resigns. Bush now would have to appoint a new vice president. If this were to happen before the November elections, Bush would have to get approval in Congress. The Republicans have control of both houses, but those houses contain several people who hope to be president themselves. Sen. John McCain, for example, might be a popular choice, but the Democrats don't want him running as a presidential candidate from the vice presidency -- and his potential Republican rivals really don't want to see him handed the nomination on a platter. Moreover, Bush doesn't much like him -- although with a popularity rating at 31 percent, Bush's likes and dislikes matter less than before. So, there has to be a Republican who won't tear Congress apart and who will improve rather than reduce Bush's standing. The obvious choice would be former Secretary of State Colin Powell, except that by all accounts he does not like Bush and doesn't want to bail him out. Plus, his position on a number of issues would make him anathema to the right wing. But, Powell is popular and respected, and he has made it clear that he has no appetite for the presidency. Apart from the personal dislike, that's not a bad choice for Bush. This is, of course, early and meaningless speculation. Nevertheless, Dick Cheney's chief of staff has been indicted, and we are now at a point where it is likely that Bush's top political adviser is about to be indicted. Cheney's name has come up in court filings. Speculating on his replacement as vice president means little at this point, but at the same time, this scenario cannot be ignored. If McCain is inappropriate and Powell won't take the job (or Bush won't reach out to him), who else can the president put into the slot that will enhance his administration? Months ago, we felt the Plame affair was going to get out of hand. If Rove gets indicted -- and it is not yet certain he will -- then we will declare the situation officially out of hand.