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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1585)	5/16/2006 8:32:47 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50327

re: ["why would he say in his own words that he didn't make much on the trade?"] I find it hard to really believe that your question is either an honest one, or a serious one. But, I'll bite anyway... Have you ever listened to how Buffett responds when ever he's asked about how he's created millions & millions of dollars (often tens of millions of dollars) out of tens of thousands -- for the early investors in Berkshire ? He always answers in the same self-effacing, minimizing way -- as he did about his Silver position. That's classic Buffett. It's his style, his image and part of Berkshire's well managed corporate culture and image. Fwiw... I don't think he's quite bought into the whole "Boo-yah" thing, quite yet. If you aren't familiar with Buffett's persona, or style... then, maybe you're a football fan ? If you are... then you've seen countless coaches at the collegiate and/or NFL level ... play the same self-effacing, humble-pie, minimization game. Lou Holtz when he was at Notre Dame, comes to mind first & foremost for me -- as the postechild for this. With Holtz, not unlike Buffett... it's part psychology, part corporate culture, it's about positioning and of course, part of their own very well orchestrated and managed public image. During Notre Dame's perfect 12-0 National Championship season in 1988... if you listened to Holtz as the season progressed -- you would of thought Notre Dame finished 0-12. Week by week, if you listened to him talk about how he felt about Notre Dame's performance the previous week and their prospects for the upcoming opponnent -- you would of thought they were -28 point underdogs in every game...and still looking for their first win. It was kind of refreshing in the begining, but it got kind of cheesey by the end of the season... While Lou Holtz could and did lay into the referee's, the media and even his own players with unmatched over-the-top, uber-intense emotion...while talking to the media about his team's (or, his own) accomplishments, he always played them down... minimized them and played the humble pie routine. Buffett's no different. Look at both the Silver & US Dollar charts during the timeframes he held his positions... it was impossible for him to have not made quite a bit of money on both... rather obviously so. But, now Buffett has broken the 2 Main Tennants of Goldbuggery: -- Number one... he sold. -- Number two... he called the present environment -- "a speculative bubble." That's worse than blasphemy to the 'bugs. And now the bug's are turning on him like rabid ferral dogs...doubting everything from his intellectual competency to his parentage... Whodathunkit? Denial isn't a river in Egypt...it's the first step towards self-destruction. Denial took the 'bugs on two successive, near 100 point death march's in the HUI Index over the last couple years. Denial led the 'bugs into the dessert and a 20+ year brutual bear market. And denial will once again prove that making money in a commodity bull market isn't the challenge...keeping the money is. Always has been -- always will be. I also truly find it difficult to believe that anyone is honestly asking why Buffett just bought a position in COP, or why he bought Silver, or shorted the US Dollar in the first place ? First...Earth to 'bugs: Buffett has never been a "speculator". His massive Silver position and US Dollar short had NOTHING to do with "speculation"...or, "trading". It was a hedge....insurance - by any other name...is still insurance...and Buffett is an insurance man. He is neither a speculator, or a trader. Buffett is a classic buy & hold value investor from the Ben Graham school...and he basically buys businesses more than he buys stocks. Buffett & Berkshire presently own more than a few businesses who's earnings have a high negative coorelation to rising energy prices... COP is the perfect hedge for those businesses. His US Dollar short was a hedge... more than a trade. As was his Silve position. COP is as well... Do you also think Bill Gates is a metals, or energy speculator ? A PM'bug, or an Energy Permabull in drag? Or, does he own PASS and PEIX as a part of an overall wealth diversification hedge? I sincerely hope -- that's a rhetorical question for most of you... The main takeaway from all of this? You can make more money, with significantly less risk... by trading the traders, versus trading the market -- SOTB PS: The same rules apply to poker: "Don't play your cards -- play the people." -- DOYLE BRUNSON 10 Time -- World Series of Poker Winner It matters not whether it's Stocks, or Poker...the rules of the game may change...but, the rules of human emotion and psychology never do. -- REMEMBER THAT and you'll never end up holding the bag. -- Master it...and you'll always walk away with the bag.