To: koan who wrote (11326 ) 5/15/2006 9:24:57 PM From: E. Charters Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78416 It is easy to get carried away. We only have 100 years of temperature records that are hard money. The rest of the temperature record has to inferred from historical anecdotal evidence, and non historical evidence, which is partly gleaned from ice records from the great ice sheets of Antartica and Greenland and ocean water levels. These also gives us carbon dioxide levels, which in the past were surprisingly high. Could the climate change we seem to be experiencing be a long term trend? And if it is, could it be entirely natural and not influenced by man's CO2/Methane/CFC contribution? Unfortunately, the answers are yes, and perhaps yes. There is no incontravertible evidence that we are in a warming trend that will continue irreversibly, but we may be. And there is no incontravertible evidence that this trend is driven by man induced emissions, or the emissions of his agricultural animals, but it may be. This is because no matter how compelling the chemical theory of the greenhouse effect is, and how good the evidence of ice recession and changing farming cycles is, man's contribution of atmospheric gases compared to the earth's similar contribution is small. Volcanoes and trees do a far greater job of emitting dangerous gases. In past history, there have been greater swings of temperature than we are experiencing now over a short time. The question is, it is possible to predict seemingly chaotic long term trends -AND- accurately factor analyze their contributing influences with the short database we have? Isn't it a bit like predicting the stock market? It's multi-factorial drift has to have as many independent variables any day. And tracking their flux has proven an elusive job. EC<:-}