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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (61102)5/16/2006 12:22:06 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Xie absolutely nails it, nobody else get this like he (and me) does! He calls it "normalizing" China's true production costs. The term I've used is paying for negative externalities, such as exposing population to death, disease and poor health. That's not free.

Third, China is normalizing its production cost. Manufacturing production has relocated to China on a massive scale in the past five years due to China’s cheap labor and lax enforcement of environmental standards. While the low labor-cost advantage is well understood, the lax environmental rules and their enforcement are not well understood and may have become more important than labor costs in attracting production relocation in the past three years.

The world has dumped its pollution in China in the past five years. According to China’s EPA, China’s pollution is 12 times the world average per unit of GDP. The emission of sulfur dioxide is 22.5 mn tons compared to the maximum carrying capacity of 12 for the country. Two-fifths of the seven major river basins are severely polluted. 90% of the rivers running through cities suffer from severe pollution problems. 300 million rural residents have no access to purified water. One-third of China’s territory suffers from the effects of acid rain. Two-thirds of the population suffers from poor air quality.

China’s environmental catastrophe is a poorly understood factor in the global disinflationary trend. If the relocated factories had to subscribe to the same environmental standards as in the OECD countries, goods made in China may not have been so cheap. My guesstimate is that the lesser costs for pollution have been more important than cheap labor in the disinflationary pressure from China.

China is waking up to the need to normalize pollution costs. Guangdong Province may close thousands of businesses that do not meet environmental regulations. The NDRC just issued tightening instructions on the carbide-based PVC industry that creates serious pollution.

China’s policies to increase wages (see ‘Raising Wages, not Currency’, 12 May 2006) will increase China’s export price substantially, by 20-30% for industries like knitwear. The normalization of pollution standards could do the same for many chemical products.

Normalization of China’s production is a major source of cyclical inflation. Part of the unsustainable disinflation between 2002-05 has to be regurgitated.



To: ild who wrote (61102)5/16/2006 1:11:59 PM
From: John Vosilla  Respond to of 110194
 
"Three Reasons for Higher Inflation Ahead

First, wage inflation may be coming, especially in economies with high current account deficits.

Second, commodity inflation has not all hit headline inflation, as companies have absorbed some and governments have subsidized.

Third, China is normalizing its production cost."

How about a fourth..Pass through of the rising costs of residential and commercial RE that will be absorbed by tenants and customers?



To: ild who wrote (61102)5/16/2006 2:25:15 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Date: Tue May 16 2006 11:48
trotsky (@Rydex pm fund) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
yesterday, ANOTHER $10 m. flowed out of the fund - its cash flow ratio is now back at the level of August 2005. altogether, half of the money that flowed in from the 2005 low point has now flowed out again. in short, there is a lot of fear that the metals are about to collapse - this fear is also evident in how the pm stocks are currently trading.
you want 'wall of worry'? you got it - in spades.

Date: Tue May 16 2006 11:11
trotsky (this is too funny...) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
on April 11, CNN-money.com printed an article entitled
"$600 Gold - want in? think twice!"
then there followed a tedious reprise of bearish arguments centering mostly on how dismal gold performed during its 1980-99 bear market ( yes, it's a big surprise that things perform badly in bear markets ) .
on May 9 , CNN-Money.com printed ANOTHER article on gold. guess the title? that's right,
"$700 Gold - want in? think twice!"
hold on, that's not all - it was actually the SAME ARTICLE - only the $600 number has been changed to $700 throughout!
the major point the article makes:
"Gold is great - just NOT for individuals"

read all about it here:
the-privateer.com