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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (51262)	5/16/2006 1:44:12 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish: Current real estate news just confirms the obvious.... the bubble is bursting. As you hint, the tough part is trying to figure out just how widespread the fallout and assorted "hurts" will be. At this end, I think it breaks the back of the consumer refi/spend habit which in turn thumps the Asians (exports fall). Hard to believe that the market can withstand such pressure, especially given the debt levels, war, etc. At this end, homebuilder puts are in place and mortgage providers are coming into range (I just want to see the market do a bit of "punishing" within that sector before piling into mortgage provider puts). Meantime, the tech sector continues to pile up inventories and the warnings period is about to unfold. Should provide a rich target environment and puts are also well stacked. Best, Earlie

To: mishedlo who wrote (51262)	5/16/2006 2:17:47 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

>>The worst possible scenario, that prices would 'stay the same' over the next three years, was selected by just 5 percent of homeowners<< If anyone needs prima facie evidence that housing is in a bubble, here it is. That "the worst possible scenario" was considered to be housing prices "staying the same" makes me so bearish my head's gonna explode!<G> And even with that, only 5 percent of homeowner's considered the "nuclear winter" price flat option likely! ROTFLOLOLOL! Have I told you lately this is gonna end badly?