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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (30465)	5/16/2006 5:42:43 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95503

<I may just start shorting everything.....seems as though those are the only guys making any $$.> Be sure and buy about 10X the share amount in Calls so you can profit when they run your short against you.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (30465)	5/16/2006 5:59:38 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95503

Hi Brian, First, the stuff in this post is just food for thought. Here are a couple of issues I have with AMAT. Let's start with the trailing earnings and the options giveaway. Including today's report, AMAT has reported $0.74 (14+17+17+26). At $17.20/share, we have a trailing PE of 23. This for a company that's giving away roughly 3 cents per quarter in stock options or about 13% of the company's trailing earnings. A couple hundred million dollars have been stolen away from shareholders and given to management. Look at this another way. Over 13% of the stock's price has been sacrificed to greedy management over the past year. The stock might be $19.50 if we could factor this back into the earnings equation but, alas, we can't. In FY04, the company had revenues of $8 billion. In FY05, they dropped to under $7 billion. In FY06, the projections are for just under $9 billion. I think after today's report, we should see FY06 expectations rise to around $9.3 billion but this is only about 7% higher then the current number. This is a nice, solid rise but it's only 15% higher then FY04's revenue numbers. The lumpy ordering in the industry is another big reason why AMAT doesn't trade at a higher multiple. There does appear to be light at the end of the tunnel but with the current selling mentality on Wall Street, it's not too surprising that AMAT is dumping after hours. EDIT - these are back of the napkin numbers and should not be taken as gospel. Please point out any mistakes! Thank you. The Ox