It's 1994 all over again in Nevada.
BY CHUCK MUTH
Thursday, October 5, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT
CARSON CITY, Nev.--The Democrats are placing a lot of faith in Nevada's demographic and political currents for 2008: The party shoehorned a Nevada presidential caucus in between Iowa and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, however, come the November elections. If the Democrats can't secure big wins this year in Nevada--in an evenly divided state that President Bush barely carried in 2004 with 50.5% of the vote--they aren't likely to score big anywhere.
First off, the Senate, where local politics is frustrating national ambition. Incumbent Republican John Ensign, an alumnus of the class of '94, is seeking a second term. Mr. Ensign lost a bid for the Senate to now-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid in 1998 by a razor-thin margin of just 428 votes--only to come back and win the seat of retiring Democrat Sen. Richard Bryan two years later.
Shortly thereafter, Messrs. Ensign and Reid put behind them all lingering bitterness from that campaign and now operate under an unwritten non-aggression pact. Mr. Ensign reportedly discouraged a number of credible candidates interested in taking on Mr. Reid in 2004, and barely acknowledged the eventual GOP nominee. Mr. Reid, for his part, gives every appearance of returning the favor this year.
The Democrat nominee is Jack Carter, Jimmy Carter's son. Mr. Carter has lived in Las Vegas for only a couple years and jumped into the fray after a number of high-profile Democrats with more extensive Nevada roots opted out. Mr. Reid reportedly discouraged all credible challengers to his colleague from the other side of the aisle. Indeed, much was made of Mr. Reid humiliating Mr. Carter at the Democratic Convention last April, when he dressed him down during a press conference with some sharp comments.
Some polls have shown Mr. Carter running surprisingly close to Mr. Ensign, and stumping by his famous father has kept his name in front of the public. But only the most rabid partisans believe Mr. Carter will unseat the widely popular Mr. Ensign. Especially with the Senate minority leader quietly in the Republican's corner, this one, in Vegas parlance, is a "lock."
The Democrats have a more realistic chance in Nevada's third congressional district against Republican House incumbent Jon Porter. Tessa Hafen, his 30-year-old challenger, is looking to capitalize on the demographics of the district, which includes Clark County and parts of suburban Las Vegas. Democrats enjoy a slight registration advantage, though President Bush barely carried it in 2004.
Ms. Hafen spent eight years working for Harry Reid in Washington. By all accounts he recruited her for this race after Mr. Porter publicly criticized the minority leader for failing to return campaign contributions from Jack Abramoff. It is widely believed that Mr. Reid is pulling out all the stops behind the scenes--unlike his lackluster effort on behalf of Jack Carter--to make sure Ms. Hafen has enough money to get the job done.
Ms. Hafen may be "green," but she's tough, holding her own in a vicious and increasingly petty campaign. Venturing into territory usually avoided by seasoned campaign pros, Ms. Hafen (and Mr. Reid) has raised questions about Mr. Porter's marital woes (he's recently divorced, for the second time). The Porter campaign has responded in kind, focusing on the dubious issue of Ms. Hafen's residency. Her eight years in Washington, they impute, makes her a feckless carpetbagger (despite being born and raised in the district).
"Tessa Hafen is trying to tie President Bush around Jon Porter's neck," former Nevada GOP executive director Dan Burdish explains. "But Harry Reid's poll numbers are even worse than the president's. The Porter campaign should stop focusing on this silly matter of her residency and instead focus on her ties to that albatross of a former boss she has. If Mr. Porter loses this race, his campaign strategists will have a lot to answer for."
Should an anti-Republican or anti-Bush backlash develop along the lines of 1994, which the Mark Foley contretemps may have catalyzed, Mr. Porter is in exactly the kind of swing district that could, well, swing. In a city that loves playing the odds, however, at this point they remain in the incumbent's favor. The vaunted GOP 72-hour get-out-the-vote machine would make the difference in a race this close.
Still, Democrats hoping to take the House would do well to consider Nevada's second district. The seat is being vacated by Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons for a gubernatorial run.
The Republican candidate, Dean Heller, is the sitting secretary of state who has won three successive statewide races for that position. He's telegenic, well-funded and more populist than hard-core conservative--meaning he will attract considerable crossover votes from nonideological Democrats in November, especially in this mostly rural district. It encompasses most of the Silver State besides Las Vegas, and has a huge Republican registration advantage of almost 50,000 votes. President Bush won handily at 57% in 2004.
In this light, opponent Jill Derby has been very careful not to let voters know she's a Democrat. Ms. Derby is an experienced politico with 18 years on the state Board of Regents. She's also well-funded and enjoys old-line family ties to the rural community.
But while early polls show Ms. Derby to be closer than expected, once Mr. Heller refills his campaign coffers--drained by a particularly competitive August primary--and unloads his paid media campaign, this one will be over. It's sheer numbers: Even a 1994-style Democratic tsunami won't propel Ms. Derby into office.
Democratic aspirations for a major congressional victory in 2006 necessarily hinge on flipping districts like Nevada's second. Don't put the champagne on ice just yet.
Mr. Muth, a former executive director for the Nevada Republican Party, is president of Citizen Outreach, a nonpartisan limited-government public policy organization.
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