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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6495)	5/16/2006 11:06:36 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217688

indeed, lv gave, aside from an extradinarily long name, is a moron tooting weakly thought chit chat seemingly in exchange for a fee. maudlin as usual, regurgitates more of the same w/o a single additional thought, other than, as usual, to name drop the association, and thereby seemingly enhance the named dropped along with his own silly newsletter. just another widening of the cesspool. kind of reminds me of mishedlo somehow. not sure why :)

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6495)	5/16/2006 11:36:08 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217688

Ok, it's going to take some time to go through your post, including the long-forgotten messages I wrote when I followed Roubini and Stetser and their very good articles on imbalances more carefully [both of which I think you don't mention], and looked for financial rocks to crawl under while TEOTWAWKI lurked at my door like the night monsters of my childhood lurked under my bed. Well, actually, having received a kick in the groin administered by a lady named Katrina, I have looked into TEOTWAWKI's open jaws already, but walked away, unscathed. As I knew that someday such a lady would knock on my door, I didn't invest in Louisiana real estate except for my residence, a good thing since I really don't have the stomach or talent for real estate. But I'm getting diverted. Maudlin's piece is thought provoking, interesting, and therefore worth reading and considering before discarding. It now reminds me a bit of a fat man eating chocolate cake for the nutritional value of the wheat and eggs used to make it or the last kicks of a drowning man as he tries vainly to float. The long and the short of it is that a nation's debt is not backed by the value of its infrastructure or its citizens' assets or any other assets which the holder of the bill cannot get his grubby little hands on if the debt is not paid, as Maudlin suggests, but by the ability to pay in a currency that's worth something. And that ability is wholly dependent on the size of the debt and the nation's prospects. But with enough debt in place, the banker becomes the debtor's partner, a simple thing I think the exporting creditors understand very well. And that is why I don't think we'll see a traumatic TEOWAWKI of the kind I think you expect.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (6495)	8/11/2006 12:57:38 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217688

Hey Jay.. Long time, no see.. Hope all has been well!! Listen.. The United States economy has survived an Tech Equity Bubble, a terrorist attack.. a war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and high oil prices. Yet, the US economy grew at 5.6%, which consequently assisted China in achieving its tremendous growth over the past year. We also have a very low unemployment rate, despite the fact that the US population now numbers 300 million people. And instead of hyper-inflation and the world dumping US government treasuries, we're currently seeing the 10 year bond sell with a yield lower than the current Fed Funds rate, indicative of a tremendous demand for a limited of US debt. And while the recent productivity reports are lower than previous ones, overall it has remained rather high, and certainly higher than Europe. The oil market, based upon basis supply and demand principles, is probably overpriced by $20/barrel. And as US economic growth slows down to managable levels (assuming the Fed hasn't overshot and set us up for recession), China's growth is likely to moderate as well. So I don't quite know where I've been too wrong, given what's occurred over the past 6 years here in the states. But I would concur that the US real estate market has been in a bubble and I fear that it might not have the "soft-landing" the Fed intends. And this could have some serious repercussions for the overall economy. But what things be like had the US not endured the kind of international turmoil we've seen over the past 6 years? I'm just not convinced that the world has many attractive alternatives to investing in the US when it comes to "safe havens" for large capital inflows. I certainly wouldn't see China as a safe haven, given the political risk evident in that political-economic system. Things certainly aren't perfect in the US economy long-term. But compared to the rest of the world, I don't think we're doing so badly. But I'm happy and pleased that you're doing well. Hawk