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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cruzbay who wrote (197801)5/18/2006 10:08:10 PM
From: Smallpops7Respond to of 275872
 
Yes.
I have to report.

HIGHLIGHTS
• Last night after the close, Dell announced that it has plans to adopt AMD’s Opteron in its multiprocessor
server line. Prior to this announcement, Dell used INTC as an exclusive supplier for
microprocessors.
• We believe AMD could realize ~25-30% share of Dell multi-processor servers by the end of '07,
which would translate to incremental revenue of ~$40-50M per year and EPS of $0.03-$0.04 per year
for AMD. Additionally, we would not be surprised to see AMD penetrate Dell’s volume servers and
desktops as early as '07 with the introduction of its quad core MPUs and in notebooks as early as '08
with its new mobile architecture.
• If AMD were able to penetrate 25% of Dell’s entire product line-up, it could realize revenue upside of
~$1B per year and EPS of ~$0.35 per year. Share loss of this magnitude for Intel could translate to a
EPS loss of $0.07-$0.08 per year.
• We believe the Dell announcement supports our thesis that the MPU market is experiencing an
inflection point from a market dominated by Intel with 90% share, to a true duopoly, where the
natural equilibrium is something closer to a 60/40 split. In this context, we think AMD has $3-$5 of
EPS power.
• We reiterate our Overweight rating on AMD and are increasing our price target to $65 from $55. We
remain Underweight INTC with a $15 price target.

Smallpops



To: cruzbay who wrote (197801)5/18/2006 10:08:55 PM
From: Sidney StreetRespond to of 275872
 
Confirm the 65 target; also - target for INTC is reduced to 15



To: cruzbay who wrote (197801)5/18/2006 10:21:16 PM
From: ManiacRespond to of 275872
 
I dont lie. =). Unfortunately I don't really post here as my technical knowledge of semis/amd compared to some on SI is nothing to really talk about. Luckily, thanks to many good people here and some good timing on my side, I've managed to make a few bucks......oh and i do post as skeelo34 on yahoo...occasionally....



To: cruzbay who wrote (197801)5/18/2006 11:34:28 PM
From: dougSF30Respond to of 275872
 
Talk about hype. :)


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