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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1120)	5/21/2006 6:40:30 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

Random musings... it is always tough to invest in the middle of a distribution. But then the selloff was a little bit quick and after 8 days some stabilisation is in order. Strong stock like HANS failed to break decisively at all, pointing to possible better prices (or the Re-Test of the highest print, 204) PROVIDED the market really tries another leg in June. For the first time in a while money flowed back into Treasuries more than one day, making the 30 year recovering 2 points to over 107. And much effort has been put into stopping the dollar bleed when it scratched 1.90 vs pound, 1.30 vs EUR and 110 vs JPY. No surprise and as a result gold lost $80. As I mentioned, selling was spread over several markets from US to the GDAX to Korea, which had a severe drawdown after May, 11, the options expiry day. In that short time frame it traded from over 190 to as low as 174, but it stabilised Friday. It is time to reshuffle the deck a bit. Metals may still be prone to another corner up, but currencies look tired having advanced so much from a base a good 8% below and with the prospectus of quick rate hikes overseas dimming (each euro cent up represents a dampening effect of about 3 to 5 basis points, thats why the frog is so hesitant with Ben Bernanke not really providing a good lead). Tech/growth fell a bit further out of fashion, with pharmaceuticals, networkers and semis doing badly (note that RMBS with all that gains in litigation fell below 30, a far cry from the $46 it saw on the hynix day). The only bright spot is AMD after DELL, which also shows that after the rout, stock may still be receptive to positive news and stick to some of their gains. Thats why short term buys might be the way to go, granted that the market does not further fall after the options expiry day. Financial and financial services should see some favor, given all that talk about consolidation of exchanges and the IPOs plus a little bit relief from the inflation related rout. ---------------------- Half Euro Land Housing seems to be built on sand - financially unsound with heavy borrowing in Swiss Franc and the Yen. Now with some tighening by the BOJ and little new borrowing coming in at the going rate of over 140 (142.50 is), the net balance of payments may shift to yen purchasing on a continued time frame. So... any decisive break - perhaps of the 140 level - preferably caused by a European catalyst should actually increase the yen buying up to the 2005 highs, 132 to 135...less borrowing means less (new) construction and more net repayments means... lower prices... and still less new construction...