Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (61462)	5/19/2006 1:14:45 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri May 19 2006 12:41 trotsky (rijjj@depression) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved intitially, the gold shares crashed in 1929 along with the rest of the market - then came the recovery rally into early 1930, and when the stock market turned down from that recovery high to plunge to what ultimately wturned out to be a 90% loss from the highs, the gold shares decoupled and were basically the only asset class to rise during this debacle. even bonds crashed in 30/31, as everybody scrambled for cash and the government's solvency came to be doubted as well. Date: Fri May 19 2006 12:37 trotsky (QED) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as soon as the Dow turned positive, the gold shares began to recover too - we're joined at the hip with the rest of the stock market, as we have been for quite some time. Date: Fri May 19 2006 12:23 trotsky (i should amend that last post) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there is one thing that could lessen the odds for a bounce, and that's a continuing melt-down in the broader market. the stock market looks dangerous here, in spite of being 'oversold'. the reason is that so many puts that have been shorted are now underwater. this forces delta-hedging by the holders of these positions, and there will also be assignments if the market closes weak, which in turn would keep the melt going on Monday, when those assigned positions are bound to be sold. 'oversold' is a coin with two sides in this environment. it means what it usually means 95% or more of the time ( i.e., bounce imminent ) - but in the remaining 5% ( or less ) of cases, the WORST declines actually tend to happen from such oversold levels. this general market risk is imo greater right now than the risk in gold itself ( vis-a-vis the gold shares, that is ) . for instance, if gold were to lose another 15 dollars, but the stock market at large were to rally, it would probably lead to a rally in the gold shares too, and vice versa.

To: ild who wrote (61462)	5/19/2006 1:40:33 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

that's like saying when yahoo went from $200 to $190 in 2000 that it wasn't collapsing yet, it was just minor profit taking. real estate is emotional, illiquid, and based largely on confidence for the future. we are in the midst of a unprecedented real estate crash in my opinion. The only thing that can save it at this point is 1% fed funds and 2% interest only loans.