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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tapcon who wrote (23965)	5/19/2006 4:55:58 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 78742

I second the back-patting for Carl's MPW pick. Well done.

To: Tapcon who wrote (23965)	5/19/2006 6:46:30 PM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78742

thanks paul, MPW has been a nice gainer and i think it has a long way to go on the upside...i was at a presentation they gave at the vegas money show on tuesday, and spoke to the CFO during and after that talk...i'm now even more confident of this company/stock, and the dividend increase is further confirmation of their progress the way MPW trades, i would guess you will be able to buy it around 11 or a bit lower in the next few weeks, or perhaps .25 lower than that after it goes ex dividend...each time it looks like it is ready to take off, it seems to pull back before moving higher again...i certainly wouldn't chase it based on its past trading pattern, though of course you never know when it could just take off and keep going one further item to watch for, they have a loan to a company called vibra which totals about 40M at this point...due to various agreements surrounding that loan, the effective yield on that money to MPW is about 23%...it is to vibra's advantage to pay that loan off as quickly as possible, and MPW has been expecting vibra to pay off part of that loan at some point in the near future...when that happens, MPW will earn less going forward on the repaid money, as they will reinvest it into one of their other projects, which normally start out earning a yield of around 10.3%...as such, it may cause them to adjust their FFO for 2006 from the current 1.15 or so down to perhaps 1.05 (my guess, they haven't given a number for this since they don't know if or when the loan will be partially or fully prepaid)...obviously the more time that passes before this prepayment is made, the less it will affect 2006 FFO, and there is always the chance they will make up the difference from other projects anyway in any event, when they release the news that vibra has made a partial prepayment on that loan, the stock may dip due to uninformed sellers, and that may be a chance to buy or add as well...clearly i don't see it as a long term issue, and it won't be a surprise to anyone who has followed the company's progress, as they note it in every presentation they make, and along with any guidance they give, but news like this always seems to shake out the uninformed, and provide an opportunity for the well informed, so there's a good chance it will do the same this time