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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (61505)	5/20/2006 9:36:16 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

>>leveraged bets on the direction of stock market volatility in recent months<< in the larger scheme of things vol has hardly budged -- I know it is a jump percentage-wise -- but historically its nothing. This premise seems a little shaky.

To: orkrious who wrote (61505)	5/20/2006 9:48:09 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

yeah -- there's the rub methinks ... >>and it is likely that aggressive (1998-style) Fed actions would exacerbate a flight out of dollar securities. A flight from the dollar would only then worsen the deteriorating inflation backdrop. Not only is it possible that the Fed loses the luxury of lowering rates during the next crisis, it may very well be forced at some point to do what other countries are forced to do - raise rates to mitigate a run on its currency.<<

To: orkrious who wrote (61505)	5/20/2006 9:54:17 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

he doesn't really answer Roach's silliness -- it's NOT just an overowned, overbloated dollar -- it's years of malinvestment -- especially underinvestment in real stuff -- there is NO commodity bubble -- commodities are worth owning, not just because the dollar is overvalued -- there are supply issues involved, imo. >>I read a lot about Bubbles these days: The “energy Bubble”, the “metals Bubble”, the “commodities Bubble”, the “emerging market Bubble”, the “hedge fund Bubble”, and so on. But most of the analysis misses the more salient points. What we’re dealing with – the overriding issue is - The Dollar Liquidity Bubble. The combination of massive Current Account Deficits and outbound (investor and speculator) finance is inundating the financial world, and there is no way short of a major U.S. crisis to rein it in.<<