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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (1656)	5/20/2006 3:12:18 PM
From: pogbull	Respond to of 50124

In your opinion how low might gold go? And is it almost time to be looking at some natural gas plays?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (1656)	5/21/2006 9:03:58 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50124

>>Goldbugs had better take a long, hard look at that Natural Gas chart, because not only are there many lessons to be learned, but it may just also be a very prescient window into their future as well... << you really are a nit comparing those two -- and you ought to know better. Seeing this kind of silliness makes me wonder why you have any following at all on SI. And re natural gas -- you have to know how to distinguish seasonal and cyclic volatility from a "bubble." Nat gas is clearly NOT going to settle back down to a long period where the price is below 4 bucks per mmBtu. It was not in a bubble. It HAS reached a higher average level going forward. Ditto oil. There seems to be a desire on the part of all the self-proclaimed gurus to want to say anything that has went up in price is a bubble. That's a muddling of terms -- call a price spike a price spike or a price collapse a price collapse -- a big change in price does NOT mean something is in a bubble.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (1656)	10/27/2006 6:16:13 PM
From: wsw1	Respond to of 50124

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Forget the spin, here comes the Formula! U.S. Economy: Growth Slows to 1.6% as Housing Slides By Joe Richter Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate last quarter, the slowest pace in more than three years and less than economists forecast, as housing slumped and the trade deficit widened. The first estimate of the quarter's gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., compares with a 2.6 percent gain from April through June, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. A gauge of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve eased. Stocks declined and bonds advanced after the report, which showed homebuilding fell by the most in 15 years and the trade gap worsened as consumers bought more foreign-made goods. A drop in energy prices that gathered momentum late in the quarter is sustaining spending and restraining inflation, helping persuade Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to leave interest rates alone. ``The Fed is going to be pleased with the fact that their tightening efforts are bearing fruit with slower growth,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. ``It's not yet providing the comfort level on inflation that the Fed would like to see, but it's on the right track.'' bloomberg.com Jim’s Formula: 1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets. 2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations. 3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red. 4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits. 5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues. 6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government. 7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit. 8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit). 9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms. 10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall. 11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions. 12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension. Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral. *I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.*