Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (51561)	5/21/2006 6:56:38 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Dak: To answer your query in a serious manner, at this end, I am keying on the US consumer. Until lately, he has supported the globe and he has done this with dough borrowed against the increasing value of his home. With that value now falling, he can no longer borrow from that source (and all his other borrowing sources were sucked dry before the housing bubble). There are already plenty of signs that he is pulling in his horns. Once this picks up momentum. the recession begins. And this time around it is difficult to believe that it won't intensify (on the back of rising unemployment, rising mortgage defaults, etc). We will get bounces but I don't think they will be earth shattering. In this early going, I will book the short term gains. Once I see the downside momentum intensifying, I will just "let 'em (puts) ride". Best, Earlie