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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (68468)5/22/2006 3:59:34 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 362860
 
Al Gore's coming back — but how far?
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Updated 5/22/2006 12:47 AM ET

By Anthony Breznican and Bill Nichols, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — In a parallel universe, President Al Gore reports that his administration has stopped global warming. Gas costs 19 cents a gallon, and oil companies warrant a federal bailout. "If it were the other way around, you know the oil companies would help us," Gore deadpans.

OK, so that was on NBC's Saturday Night Live on May 13, and Gore isn't president. But the reality is, Gore is back and he's hot.

Six years after his agonizing election loss to George W. Bush, the former vice president is basking in the limelight generated by the national release this week of An Inconvenient Truth, an independent film that documents his crusade against global warming.

Gore says he's trying to get people to lead their leaders. A groundswell of political will from regular citizens, he says, will pressure politicians and automobile, fuel and chemical corporations to embrace green technology.

"There are a few irresponsible companies, making billions of dollars by dumping massive qualities of global warming pollution into the Earth's atmosphere," Gore, 58, told USA TODAY. "When 50.1% of the American people are passionate and committed and feel the sense of urgency that's appropriate here, then the political system will flip. I think we're close to a tipping point."

Gore's re-emergence has fueled speculation that he still wants to be one of those leaders. He has fun with the idea even as he bats it away. Asked where he'd like to be in 21/2 years, he strokes his chin, stares ahead and says dreamily, "Standing on the steps of the Capitol — " before buckling with laughter.

Seriously, Gore says, "I've been in elected politics for more than a quarter-century. I've run four national campaigns. I've been there, done that. I've found there are other ways to serve, and I'm enjoying them."

An Inconvenient Truth, based on a slide show Gore developed and has given for years, is part documentary, part dark comedy and part horror thriller. As narrator, Gore makes jokes at his own expense, presents a cartoon clip from Fox's cartoon Futurama about cooling the ocean with ice cubes and shows footage of storms, floodwaters and scorching drought that would be thrilling if they were fiction instead of fact.

He presents scientific data and news footage to illustrate havoc in weather patterns caused by pollution. He says greenhouse gases are increasingly raising ocean temperatures, leading to superstorms like Katrina; disrupting the wilderness food chain, leading to more tree-killing beetles and more wildfires; and contributing to droughts and floods.

While there is a consensus among scientists that the planet is warming, politicians and others disagree over the pace of climate change, how much damage it's doing, what causes it and what to do about it. Some groups — many of them funded by fuel and chemical companies — are skeptical.

The Washington-based Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), one such group, has created ads in response to Gore's film. One shows a person riding a bicycle in the snow while a woman intones: " 'Let's force people to cut back,' they say."

Myron Ebell, CEI's director of energy and global warming policy, acknowledged that the group gets funding from companies such as ExxonMobil but says that doesn't compromise him. His group says global warming is not a crisis, and oil use shouldn't be curtailed.

Ebell says deforestation, not pollution from fossil fuels, is to blame for some climate problems. He also says "niche technologies" such as solar, wind and ethanol "can only provide small amounts of the energy we need."

Instead of giving up on such alternatives, Gore says, the country can adapt to make energy both plentiful and less environmentally toxic. And he wants the push to come from both parties. "I think this is a moral issue, not a political issue," Gore says.

Gore is a longtime environmental advocate whose best-selling 1992 book, Earth in the Balance, made the case that human activity threatens the planet. In his new role as film star, as well as recent speeches ripping into Bush policies on secrecy and the Iraq war, he's a prominent voice for liberals.

Some Democrats say Gore should not rule out running for president. "He would bring stature, good name, name ID, money and a rallying cause — the environment," says Donna Brazile, Gore's 2000 campaign manager.

Joe Trippi, who ran former Vermont governor Howard Dean's bid for the White House in 2004, says Gore is well-positioned to run as an outsider whose stands are much sharper than most leading Democrats. "He's a guy who doesn't have to worry about who he offends," Trippi says. "He has the unique ability to say that he's worked within the system and the system's broken and he can lead the way."

Bruce Cain, head of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, says a Gore candidacy would be problematic for several reasons, including New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's head start on fundraising and lingering perceptions of Gore as a bad candidate.

"He was regarded as wooden and prone to artificial makeovers," Cain says. "Even if you believe he's found his true voice out of office, the question is whether the old consultant-managed wooden image would reappear once he got back into the limelight."

Gore says he is a changed man since 2000: "I have been through a lot, and the old cliché about 'whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger' does have some validity to it."

And he still has impact in the political world. A recent e-mail campaign he agreed to do for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised more than $200,000. That made it the most successful e-mail campaign the committee has done.

But Gore is far more involved in civic and private-sector pursuits than in politics. A longtime technophile, he is a board member at Apple Computer, a senior adviser to Google and a founder of Current, an interactive cable TV network. He is also helping launch a new bipartisan education group, the Alliance for Climate Protection.

It's the next phase of the crusade now immortalized in An Inconvenient Truth. As he puts it, mocking both his environmental and high-tech preoccupations, "Saving the planet, one slide at a time."

Contributing: Jill Lawrence



To: Wharf Rat who wrote (68468)5/22/2006 4:05:40 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 362860
 
The Flipping Point

sciam.com

How the evidence for anthropogenic global warming has converged to cause this environmental skeptic to make a cognitive flip

By Michael Shermer
SCIENTIFICAMERICAN.COM
May 22, 2006

In 2001 Cambridge University Press published Bjørn Lomborg's book The Skeptical Environmentalist, which I thought was a perfect debate topic for the Skeptics Society public lecture series at the California Institute of Technology. The problem was that all the top environmental organizations refused to participate. "There is no debate," one spokesperson told me. "We don't want to dignify that book," another said. One leading environmentalist warned me that my reputation would be irreparably harmed if I went through with it. So of course I did.

My experience is symptomatic of deep problems that have long plagued the environmental movement. Activists who vandalize Hummer dealerships and destroy logging equipment are criminal ecoterrorists. Environmental groups who cry doom and gloom to keep donations flowing only hurt their credibility. As an undergraduate in the 1970s, I learned (and believed) that by the 1990s overpopulation would lead to worldwide starvation and the exhaustion of key minerals, metals and oil, predictions that failed utterly. Politics polluted the science and made me an environmental skeptic.

Nevertheless, data trump politics, and a convergence of evidence from numerous sources has led me to make a cognitive switch on the subject of anthropogenic global warming. My attention was piqued on February 8 when 86 leading evangelical Christians--the last cohort I expected to get on the environmental bandwagon--issued the Evangelical Climate Initiative calling for "national legislation requiring sufficient economy-wide reductions" in carbon emissions.

Then I attended the TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) conference in Monterey, Calif., where former vice president Al Gore delivered the single finest summation of the evidence for global warming I have ever heard, based on the recent documentary film about his work in this area, An Inconvenient Truth. The striking before-and-after photographs showing the disappearance of glaciers around the world shocked me out of my doubting stance.

Four books eventually brought me to the flipping point. Archaeologist Brian Fagan's The Long Summer (Basic, 2004) explicates how civilization is the gift of a temporary period of mild climate. Geographer Jared Diamond's Collapse (Penguin Group, 2005) demonstrates how natural and human-caused environmental catastrophes led to the collapse of civilizations. Journalist Elizabeth Kolbert's Field Notes from a Catastrophe (Bloomsbury Publishing, 2006) is a page-turning account of her journeys around the world with environmental scientists who are documenting species extinction and climate change unmistakably linked to human action. And biologist Tim Flannery's The Weather Makers (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2006) reveals how he went from being a skeptical environmentalist to a believing activist as incontrovertible data linking the increase of carbon dioxide to global warming accumulated in the past decade.

It is a matter of the Goldilocks phenomenon. In the last ice age, CO2 levels were 180 parts per million (ppm)--too cold. Between the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution, levels rose to 280 ppm--just right. Today levels are at 380 ppm and are projected to reach 450 to 550 by the end of the century--too warm. Like a kettle of water that transforms from liquid to steam when it changes from 99 to 100 degrees Celsius, the environment itself is about to make a CO2-driven flip.

According to Flannery, even if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 70 percent by 2050, average global temperatures will increase between two and nine degrees by 2100. This rise could lead to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which the March 24 issue of Science reports is already shrinking at a rate of 224 ±41 cubic kilometers a year, double the rate measured in 1996 (Los Angeles uses one cubic kilometer of water a year). If it and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, sea levels will rise five to 10 meters, displacing half a billion inhabitants.

Because of the complexity of the problem, environmental skepticism was once tenable. No longer. It is time to flip from skepticism to activism.