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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: UncleBigs who wrote (61606)5/22/2006 12:15:57 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Bigs as an example my house has already gone down in value 15% off the top last fall. No matter what the pundits say about this be just a softening it is pure BS.

Oil prices also just down a bunch.

Pass through to consumers and businesses on a daily basis still only goes up. No way out IMHO unless they want to tighten in a quasi Volcker 1980 type inflation killing end game.

Bush seems to be the opposite of Hoover on many economic and fiscal policies. Grow and expand at any cost. Devalue the debts and debase the currency. What will stop this would be much higher interest rates or weakness in our banking system. We are no where that point. Perhaps in 3-5 years at the earliest..

Not to say we don't both make some money betting against the stock market or discretionary spending of US consumers the next six months. Just our expectations of what this next cycle will bring and how the imbalances get resolved are different..