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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (19033)	5/22/2006 3:21:17 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I'm keeping an open mind on the future bookings potential. We've seen cautious spending in the industry for a few years. Even with the small pop we saw in 2004 the industry has been basically holding onto it's cash. We get so much negative news about every facet of life these days, so much so that no one seems to be the least bit bullish on this sector and even fewer are strongly bullish on the markets in general. Even when we see increases in current or next year forecasts, we get a negative reaction to the data. The 2004 peak in billings did not even get as high as the 1997 peak and we know that more semis then ever are being bought and sold. I'm not convinced that we are about to fall off a cliff, like many appear to be saying these days. As to when the sector might take off, is anyone's guess but I'd like to see even more selling before I'd suggest a bottom has been made.

To: Gottfried who wrote (19033)	5/23/2006 10:10:12 AM
From: dr_elis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

If I remember correctly semi-capex was forecasted to increase relatively slowly but steadily to peak strongly in 2008. 2006 appears to come along unexpectedly strong in terms of capex, but anyway, the scenario was of an increase in capex until 2008. Are we now opening a discussion about an unexpectedly low capex in 2007 or is this still the "weak second half 2006" issue? At least ASML can be expected to do incredibly well in 2006: asml.com