SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (61685)5/23/2006 1:19:31 AM
From: kris b  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I predict that sustainable gdp in the u.s. is at least 30% to 40% less than today.

What will the unemployment be when we get there in your opinion?

My prediction is that housing falls by a minimum of 50% in real terms within 4 years in the major metro areas of the country.

You are conservative in your assumptions. In order to get back to 2000 level we need a drop of 60%. To turn the clock back to 1984, when the liquidity pump started, RE should drop by 80%.



To: UncleBigs who wrote (61685)5/23/2006 10:11:18 AM
From: John Vosilla  Respond to of 110194
 
"My prediction is that housing falls by a minimum of 50% in real terms within 4 years in the major metro areas of the country."

That is a given as is the most speculative of condo markets dropping 50% easily in just nominal terms.. Only a question of how much of that 'real' drop is due to inflation...


HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News