Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73203)	5/23/2006 7:43:37 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

It's 750 for SP, not 566, but we need to get there pronto for it to actually work. It's very rare. Most likely we should bounce or stay flat. If the market remains flat to slightly up, we could go down further in a week or so, after working the oversold condition, but the crash would then be averted, with a new sell signal generated by the break of levels that are now at Monday lows. -g-

To: William H Huebl who wrote (73203)	5/23/2006 8:10:30 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

The spiral does not tell the market what to do, it just follows it. So, 1363 level in 9 weeks does not mean that we will actually get there. However, if the market decides to rally all the way, that's where we'll go. In my view, these markets are heavily manipulated by the Fed, which increases the chances that the next move down will start with a crash. Coupon passes occur during options expiration. The threats this time were 1) A very sharp decline of the dollar during April 2) Very sharp rally in bond yields 3) Parabolic rally in commodities During the past two weeks there has been an operation to save these, which, as far as I see now, has worked perfectly to the benefit of the banks and the Fed. Long bond yields declined a lot, the dollar bounced, gold dropped $100. However, if stock rally takes hold, I would expect gold to be resurrected like a zombie you can't kill. Nobody can manipulate the dollar and the bonds, not even the Fed. The blah-blah and rumors of 50bp hike have saved the bonds and the dollar, and hurt stocks and gold. For now, they achieved what they wanted without actually hiking - stocks were not hurt nearly as much as commodities. However, if they pause or cut during June meeting, I expect the Fed's credibility to be hurt further, which could send the dollar and bonds off a cliff, this time taking stocks along for the ride... Won't happen until June meeting.