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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dr_elis who wrote (19060)	5/23/2006 1:14:46 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Re: I don´t think so. The key word is probably "uncertainty". If this is the case, why aren't the semi stocks rallying even though every year we hit new all-time highs for semiconductor revenue?

To: dr_elis who wrote (19060)	5/23/2006 1:44:33 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 25522

The previous cycles were in a sense eventually better predictable One could rearrange the bookings into V shape scenario and you end up with some pretty hefty growthrates without changing one dime of capex: us.f13.yahoofs.com

To: dr_elis who wrote (19060)	5/23/2006 2:04:07 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 25522

dr_elis, right on >The previous cycles were in a sense eventually better predictable than the current scenario of steady growth until a very strong 2008 with periods of fast and not so fast growth in between.

To: dr_elis who wrote (19060)	5/23/2006 3:44:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...the current scenario of steady growth until a very strong 2008 with periods of fast and not so fast growth in between." The "current scenario" is nonsense. Capex closely follows end user demand with fab utilization kept very high. Nobody has a clue about end user demand in 2008. Not many clues abound for 2006. ASML has the longest lead times, 6 to 9 months. A jump in their Q2 orders should be followed by a jump, although not necessarily of a similar magnitude, in Q3 and Q4 orders for the rest of the semi equips.