Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dara who wrote (52768)	5/24/2006 8:27:34 PM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 312695

Get Tungsten prices @ bottom right of this link: asianmetal.com that is: Tungsten APT 88.5%min Europe 245-255 USD/mtu Here is my PMI model, which I hope is materially accurate, but certainly no guarantees... FWIW, I added more today at under C$3.00 so I have a vested interest in hoping this model is accurate, and thus my pumping PMI stock at these levels... Be advised, I do not expect PMI year end financials to be released any earlier than 6/30/06 and PMI has until 7/30/06 to meet the annual filing deadline. The results for 1Q07 ending 6/30/06 will likely be out by 8/30/06. So we have at least 45 days before PMI files new annual financial statement data to confirm my hoped for results listed above, but will get double whammy with year end and 1st quarter 07 results being released within weeks from one another. Here are a few notes: From last news release: 1) There is 500,000 MTU in old tailings/slime. PMI believes they can purchase new Knelson concentrator(s) at about $170,000 each (need to verify exact $ amount and capacity). These concentrators can likely recover 30% tungsten APT from these tailings or 150,000 MTU (500K * 30% = 150K, a little over 1 year production). There is very marginal cash cost from this production, the primary cost if for purchase of Knelson concentrator(s). Likely to purchase just one initially, verify that this economically viable, then purchase another. Would likely recover all 150,000 MTU within 3 years, depending upon how many they buy. This would add 50,000 MTU production per year, 12,500 per quarter. Likely would begin by end of this year, if viable. 2) PMI has discovered very high grade ore in a single vein. Production from this vein could last several weeks, several months, or a few quarters, but I doubt a few years unless we are very lucky... Depending on how far this vein goes, grade likely to be improved for at least this quarter and possibly more. 3) Capacity constraint is primarily from hoist lifting from 3rd level to 2nd level. This hoist is 3,000 tonnes per day capacity. If PMI discovers tungsten on 2nd Level, then this production would not have any constraint. Also, no constraint from 150,000 MTU recoverable from the tailings mentioned above (this would be new, added production). 4) My model is materially accurate. Apparently no flaws with the assumptions used. It all depends on grade mined, tonnes processed, etc. which are based upon prior quarter's data. PMI has not given guidance that PMI will hit higher grades for the next few quarters, these are my assumptions based on news releases, etc. However, if PMI hits those grades and those tonnes, then the model is materially accurate. We shall see. If we are lucky, then increased productivity and recovery via the new equipment should show up in lower Euro cost per tonne processed (I am using Euro 14.00 which is only slightly lower than 12/31/05 actual cost of Euro 14.53). I have updated the attached model to include expected production for 3/31/06 based upon guidance of 13% increase from 12/31/05. I have updated quarter ending 12/31/06 to include 12,500 ounces from tailings production, some of this could happen earlier but will take PMI a while to ramp production so 12,500 may be a good number for the entire calendar year. Almonty is selling shares into the market from time to time. Apparently Almonty using these proceeds to pay the taxes when Almonty exercises their options. This last April filing stated sells up to 100,000 shares, but believe Almonty has sold few, if any, of these shares to date. However, Almonty will sell them at some point in time to pay tax liability and possibly more... Finally, like Portugal as a politically safe country, see Country Risk Ratings here: pages.stern.nyu.edu