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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron who wrote (4198)	5/26/2006 10:10:44 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24210

black gold...texas tea... Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world by Jeffrey J. Brown & "Khebab" ... In our previous article, "M. King Hubbert's Lower 48 Prediction Revisited," we outlined a simplified way of predicting what Kenneth Deffeyes designated as Qt, or total recoverable conventional oil production for a region. The method has been designated Hubbert Linearization, or HL, by Stuart Staniford, with The Oil Drum blog. Using the HL technique, the purpose of this paper is to use historical Texas and Lower 48 oil production as a model for future oil production in Saudi Arabia and the world. Figures One and Two show HL plots for Texas the Lower 48. Texas peaked at 56.5% of Qt. The Lower 48 peaked at 51.9% of Qt. ...Figures Three and Four show HL plots for Saudi Arabia, now at 58.1% of Qt, and the world, now at 48.2% of Qt. In other words, Saudi Arabia and the world are now approximately where Texas the Lower 48 were at in 1972 and 1970 respectively. ...Note that both Russia and the North Sea also peaked in the vicinity of 50% of Qt. Russia is a complex case, because of the post-Soviet collapse in production, but the post-1984 cumulative production falls within the predicted HL limits. North Sea production has been falling steadily since peaking in 1999 at 52% of Qt. Notably, the top 10 major oil companies working the North Sea in the late Nineties, using the best data, best engineers and best technology available, were predicting that North Sea production would not peak until 2010 at the earliest. Many of these same companies are now saying the world peak oil production is decades away. In summary, based on the HL method and based on our historical models, we believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production. While there will be massive efforts directed toward unconventional sources of oil, we predict that unconventional sources of oil will only serve to slow and not reverse the decline in total world oil production..... energybulletin.net