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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marc Hyman who wrote (24015)	5/26/2006 3:39:00 PM
From: bruwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

Seeing as you ask Marc, here’s my 5c worth based, primarily, on CTB’s last Annual financial statement... 1) Quarterly and Annual Turnover up, BUT EBITDA down. Not a good sign if a company can’t improve at this level. 2) LOTS of long term debt ... very high at 52% of Equity. What’s worse is it’s costing CTB over $50mil., after tax, bearing in mind it’s already losing -$9mil. at Bottom Line. 3) Negative pre-tax Return on Capital Employed. 4) Its latest Quarterly reflects the same negative qualities as (1) to (3). Therefore things don’t appear to be improving. 5) Bearing in mind its current Bottom Line losses, it does surprise me that CTB still continues to pay a Dividend. Maybe it has something to do with the Director’s equity ! IMHO this does not, currently, look like a Value play. There’s certainly better stocks around.

To: Marc Hyman who wrote (24015)	5/26/2006 6:51:58 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

CTB. I've followed this one before. If I owned it now I'd keep it. (That'd be me; others might cut their losses and move on.) Company generally goes against better financed competitors. It's been profitable though for most of the past ten years. P/sales is low. I say the company and stock will recover - but the stock might recover from even lower levels -g-. Company seems to have problems passing along high raw material costs. Eventually they will I presume, and the earnings and/or stock will recover. Looks like lows in the stock over past eight years were in 2000 and 2001 around high 9$ or low $10. I might add or buy around those prices again if they are hit, and look for a cyclical recovery to maybe $18-20 range. Further, for me, it's mostly not been a good idea to carry the reasoning logic a little further, which is: sell stock now, take losses, buy back stock if/when it hits $10. That just doesn't seem to work (for me). I either miss it, disparage buying, or otherwise don't get back in. So for me, I'd hold and just add a bit more at lower price. Of course all jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times.