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To: dougSF30 who wrote (199144)	5/29/2006 2:40:22 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

re: 1 is not an issue, as Core2 has a large IPC advantage Only 1/3 of the Intel's chips being sold at end of year will be Core2 AND What does Joe Sixpack know about IPC? He see's dual core AMD machines and dual core Intel machines. Half the Intel machines are P4s with impressive-sounding 3.X GHz CPUs, but then he sees the AMD machines with numbers from 3800+ to 5000+. In the corner there's a few newer Intel models, with a weird numbering scheme for their CPUs. So the salesman tells them that they are 2.13 GHz and 2.26 GHz. "How many GHz are those AMD machines?" "Oh, they're 2.2 and 2.4 GHz." "OK, give me one of them." And, BTW, the salesman will not be trying too hard to sell the Core 2 machines, because his boss has told him to get rid of the P4s. 2 completely misses the fact that CPUs are produced with a distribution of bins, and it is not merely about where the high-end is, but where the sweet-spot is. Intel's Core2 performance sweet-spot will be AMD's cherry-picking high-end Only 1/3 of the Intel's chips being sold at end of year will be Core2 3 -- no one is calling for a segment-based price war, but rather an overall performance-based "war". And see (2): AMD may have capacity to produce low-end parts, but what about the mid-to-high-end? Only 1/3 of the Intel's chips being sold at end of year will be Core2 By the time Windows Vista ships to OEMs, 2/3 of the notebook chips Intel is shipping will be incapable of running it in 64-bit mode. Which chip do YOU think OEMs will want to buy? If 1/3 of the chips INTEL is selling on 12/31 are Core 2, then only 1/3 of the PCs than OEMs sell in February 2007 will be Core 2. Petz

To: dougSF30 who wrote (199144)	5/29/2006 11:41:50 AM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

ME: and look at the forest (this market is headed towards a more even revenue split- and there is nothing that Intel can do to stop it over the next 3-5 years) You: That statement is ridiculous on its face. Suppose Intel Core2 performance were, for sake of argument, DOUBLE the performance of AMD parts. You think the market would still head to a more even revenue split? I assume not, unless you're nuts. You would be correct if that was an enduring "fact" rather than a snapshot in time. In the old days where no one had confidence in AMD's technical and manufacturing abilities you would be correct. HOWEVER today no one has ANY doubts as to AMD's technical abilities and to a large extent their latest Dresden based manufacturing abilities. So- in effect you may have a real world situation where Intel is ~20% fast on average for ~6-12 months and then AMD catches up. Also don't forget the fact that Intel's "Core" architecture is very very cache dependent. Compared to performance/sq mm- it s very inefficient compared to AMD's architecture. Given that- the two horse race becomes even more compelling as manufacturing capacity is king in gaining revenue share. With $2B+ in the bank and $250M+ free cash flow/Q (at least for one more Q- possibly for at least 2 more Q's), cash for fabs should not be an issue. The real world sitiation is that this market is headed to a more even split. TG