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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (62123)	5/28/2006 4:28:03 PM
From: sammy™ -_-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

This magnitude of self-reinforcing portfolio realignment may propel prices higher still in the short run. But it is reminiscent of the circumstances and psychology that preceded the tech wreck of a few years ago. My concern about the market stems from a belief that the upward momentum in energy and commodity prices is not permanent. Rising energy costs are already visible in the weakening of certain sectors of the economy. This is compounded by ongoing increases in interest rates, which are bound to rise further on Dr. Bernanke's watch. The risks confronting equity investors have solidified, not dissipated. Caution is warranted. Risklove is becoming a racetrack.

To: russwinter who wrote (62123)	5/28/2006 5:58:03 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Foreign capital flight from the US... could prompt the devaluation of the dollar ...emerging market assets could well be poised for their worst performance in more than a decade. i am having trouble understanding why a crashing dollar will be bad for emerging markets, especially emerging currencies. if the dollar weakens shouldn't we expect emerging to do OK? or if the dollar strengthens maybe emerging will get crushed? granted, last year was stellar for emerging and the dollar was relatively strong (against EUR, etc. but not against gold). if we have dollar weakness, AND we have emerging weakness (meaning the emerging equities are thrashed while emerging bond spreads widen and their currencies do even WORSE than USD), then what is going to do well? EUR? JPY? please help me understand this "conundrum".