Sibling Rivalry
Why Hillary has good reason to be wary of the pitfalls that could await her in ’08.
WEB-EXCLUSIVE COMMENTARY
By Eleanor Clift
Newsweek
Updated: 3:06 p.m. ET May 26, 2006
May 26, 2006 - Hillary Clinton told the National Press Club that she’s been thinking about issues related to energy for 30 years, ever since she edited a classmate’s paper on OPEC at Yale Law School. Funny she chose to reveal that little tidbit just days before Al Gore’s documentary on global warming opens in theaters. Gore traces his interest in climate change back to when he was an undergraduate at Harvard.
Gore thought he owned the issue, but Hillary was said to have dazzled the audience with her sweep of knowledge, down to and including a description of the “geologic sequestration” potential for reducing global warming and making better use of coal. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but it sure looks like Hillary is trying to eclipse any claim Gore might have on the Democratic presidential nomination by showcasing her expertise in an area that might otherwise catapult the former veep to the head of the pack.
Hillary’s aides insist she hasn’t decided to run for president, but they all behave like it’s a foregone conclusion. When told that John Edwards, another potential rival, would address the press club in June, Hillary’s aides, after weeks of procrastination, demanded a May date. They wanted her to go first. It’s like sibling rivalry with Hillary and all the guys maneuvering to find a way around her. She’s the Big Sister, the one with the rock-star appeal, the most ability to raise money and command the spotlight. She’s also the one with potential problems, as outlined in a front-page piece in The New York Times on Tuesday about the state of the Clinton marriage.
In an investigation worthy of uncovering weapons of mass destruction, the Times report included interviews from some 50 people and culled his-and-hers schedules going back to Valentines Day 2005 to compare and contrast how much time the Clintons spend together and apart, and what it signifies, if anything. Bottom line: Hillary is a workaholic, and Bill Clinton has to party alone with his guy pals. She’s keeping some distance in case he embarrasses her, and it’s anybody’s guess how the dynamics of a presidential campaign would play out. There are no bombshells in the article, but it is a hint of what lies ahead should Hillary become her party’s standard bearer. It’s a truism in politics that a successful campaign is about the voters, about their hopes and fears and aspirations. Bill Clinton’s slogan in ’92 was “Putting People First,” and enough voters believed in the smooth talker from Arkansas to put aside their reservations about his womanizing. As president, Clinton survived the Monica Lewinsky fiasco by focusing on the people’s business, and his job-approval ratings remained high.
A rehash of the Clinton marriage is a recipe for disaster for the Democrats, which is why Hillary’s electability is a recurring theme among the political cognoscenti. “Do voters actually weigh that? Big time,” says Republican consultant Tom Gibson. “That’s what gave us Kerry over the other guy [Howard Dean]. The Democrats are coming around after some scars to realizing it’s better to be in power than to be ideologically pure.” Ironically, it may be easier for liberal purists to abandon Hillary because she’s so transparently calculating in her moves to the middle, everything from wanting to make flag burning a felony to cluck-clucking like a stern parent over young people not working hard enough and feeling entitled. Democrats have alternatives, which is why Hillary has to look over her shoulder. Someone will emerge to credibly challenge her, and because winning campaigns are about the future, Democrats are eyeing Mark Warner, a man with so little baggage he’s almost bionic. Except for a single term as Virginia governor, he has no political experience. He was a businessman who made a lot of money in cell phones.
Democrats don’t want to blow this historic moment to regain power. Gibson, a pilot in his other life, reaches for an aeronautical phrase, “behind the power curve,” to describe the plight of the Republicans. It happens when you’re trying to climb, but the airplane is positioned wrong--the nose is too high--and no matter how much power you apply, you’re not going to gain altitude. You have to lower the nose, which is counterintuitive. “If you pull up more, then you stall the plane and crash it,” he explains. “This crowd,” he says, “all they know how to do is bear down harder on what they’ve done before. No amount of cleverness or money added to this configuration is going to help them climb out of the slump.” Gibson expects his party will lose the House, a loss he says is deserved, and attention will shift to the party’s roster of candidates for ’08. Unlike Bush, who said he didn’t plan to see Gore’s documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth,” front runner John McCain is cosponsoring legislation in the Senate to control carbon gases, a major departure for a Republican, and more reason for Hillary to be wary about what’s ahead.
© 2006 MSNBC.com
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