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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XBrit who wrote (19170)	5/29/2006 10:15:36 AM
From: FJB	Respond to of 25522

I agree. Intel and Samsung are still on pace with respect to scaling, but I thought the doubling was every 18 to 24 months. It should definitely slow down in the near future.

To: XBrit who wrote (19170)	5/29/2006 11:38:28 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Well there's a ridiculously optimistic view." Not as "ridiculous" as you indicate. It is Hwang's Law, not Moore's Law, that is quoted. Hwang's Law applies to memory development at Samsung and as the slide below indicates (slide 5 of 20), doubling memory capacity every year for the next 10 at Samsung is a continuation of recent developments and is on their road map. apmpweb.org

To: XBrit who wrote (19170)	5/31/2006 1:13:43 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

The physics challenges have now hit the "exponentially more difficult" part of the slope. As a result, Moore's law is now broken. In other words, the % advance per year in (chip performance contributed by fabrication) will continuously decrease from here forward. Actually, the technology is moving a little faster than Moore's Law. A few years ago, NAND got produced on trailing-edge manufacturing lines. Now manufacturers are putting it on their cutting-edge processes. The shift has thus accelerated product development. Currently, NAND chips double in memory density every year. The cutting-edge 4-gigabit chips of 2005, for example, will soon be dethroned by 8-gigabit chips. (Memory chips are measured in gigabits, or Gb, but consumer electronics manufacturers talk about how many gigabytes, or GB, are in their products. Eight gigabits make a gigabyte, so one 8Gb chip is the equivalent of 1GB.) news.com.com