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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (199232)	5/29/2006 5:41:24 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Respond to of 275872

@JOE - FAB38 " ... Assuming 3 years of growth at 10%, the capacity should be sufficient to supply 50% of the market. ... " I'm not forgetting Chartered too ... g And by the way, I can live :-))) with 35% share in 2008. (Intel then at 65%) Should be good for triple digits AMD quotes. BUGGI

To: Joe NYC who wrote (199232)	5/29/2006 10:33:08 AM
From: grimes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe re: "3.38x current capacity". Significantly more in terms of number or transistors (reduced feature size). Of course the transistor count per die will increase, but this may be offset by denser cache (zram etc). Overall a very substantial increase in capacity. Can you (or anybody) explain what is meant by 'bump and test'?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (199232)	5/29/2006 11:04:00 AM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

SC-->DC-->QC will have some impact, though. Even though 90-->65 will help in the other direction. Also, "current" capacity does include a bit of ramping 300mm output from Fab36. It would be interesting to compute when the various new depreciation charges for the 3 projects will begin. Looks like late 2007 for "fab 38", sooner for the added Fab36 cap, and the Bump&Test facility.

To: Joe NYC who wrote (199232)	5/29/2006 12:13:13 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 275872

Dear Joe: 3.179x10^9mm2 of silicon can produce 22x10^6 140mm2 die per month. That's the size of 65nm QC K8L with 4x512KB L2 and 2MB L3 for a total of 4.56MB of cache. That's enough for 66M per quarter time yield. If that yield is 50%, that will supply 33M QC K8Ls or about 60% of current demand. Given that mainstream will most likely be dual core at 65nm or quad core at 45nm, it could supply 100% of demand. Of course I do not know what "world class" yields are in % of raw die. However I do think that average die size is below 100mm2 given the likely amount of Semprons wrt to all the other CPU die types. I do wonder if the new equipment will be able to be used for 32nm. If it is, AMD may be able to supply all of the CPU market by 2008 with Chartered help to cover any shortfalls. Pete