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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (6834)	5/29/2006 10:08:16 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 217571

When Volcker raised interest rates the previous housing boom was already over and the stock market had been in a bear market for 15 years (though it got worse as a result of his action). Bernanke is looking at US asset prices and worried about crashing them. And why would he want to strengthen the USD? So far the fall in the USD doesn't seem to be inflationary. There simply isn't inflation on a level that warrants raising interest rates sharply. Looking at it from the eprspective of the Kondratieff Cycle (I am nto a firm believer in Kondratieff waves as there haven't been enough to prove statistically significant and the mechanism sin't totally clear to me - anyway the length of the wave is variable) we were then in the inflationary upswing of the K-wave and now we are in the deflationary downswing. I don't think we entered a new Kondratieff upwave yet. Even if we did we are in its very early stages whereas Volcker was acting at the K-wave peak.