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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (43363)	5/30/2006 11:20:07 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 67797

Harry, look closer at the negative divergences. Recent highs in the market were largely set with lower highs in the BP Indices. Election year cycles combined with the old sell in May maxim could lead to a long summer. Nuff said... RtS

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (43363)	5/30/2006 11:39:48 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 67797

Chart of the Week: Sell in May . . . in Investing \| Markets bigpicture.typepad.com CotD observes "The stock market has entered what has historically been the weakest half of the year. Today's chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 during the six months of November through April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. " click for larger graphic Source: Chart of the Day "While the May through October period has seen mild gains during major bull markets (i.e. 1950-56 & 1982-97), the overall out performance during the months of November through April is nevertheless compelling. Hence the saying, “sell in May and walk away.” Comments below from Bigpicture.com were not recent: Note however, that "Selling in May" has not worked in each of the past two years. As we mentioned previously, I am looking for a tradable low somewhere in the June/July time frame.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (43363)	5/30/2006 11:59:34 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 67797

4 Year Presidential Cycle in Markets bigpicture.typepad.com This is the first of 4 charts I plan on revealing this week. Each one will hopefully shed some insight into what we may expect in 2006. This chart shows what is known as the 4 year or Presidential Cycle. The theory behind this is that U.S. markets have a tendency to make a high in the 4 year, and a low in the 2nd year of a president's term. It has held up quite well historically, with the notable omission of 1986 (Recall, however, what happened in 1987). click for larger graphic The chart suggests that a cyclicality is at play in direct contradiction to the random walk thesis. Given the upward bias of markets over time, regular corrections may be inevitable. What is truly astonishing is the very human tendency to downplay or even ignore these periodic dislocations.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (43363)	5/31/2006 3:18:48 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 67797

Current account surplus exceeds expectations By Ottawa Business Journal Staff Tue, May 30, 2006 8:00 AM EST Canada's current account surplus with the rest of the world dropped $2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2006 to $10.7 billion, but remained well ahead of economists' forecasts. Statistics Canada says the decline was mostly the result of a sharp drop in the value of energy exports, which were very high in the fourth quarter of 2005. The surplus on trade in goods fell by $3.3 billion to $17.2 billion in the first quarter, as lower prices for natural gas tempered Canada's exports of energy products. Imports dropped more modestly in the quarter as the volume of crude oil purchases declined. Exports of goods fell $4.7 billion in Q1, due largely to energy exports, which declined by $4 billion. In the first quarter, prices of natural gas decreased by nearly 30 per cent after strong increases during the prior six months. During the last three quarters, the value of energy products has represented, on average, more than 20 per cent of all exports, compared to less than 16 per cent in 2004. Automotive product exports were down by $1 billion in the first quarter. Total imports of goods declined by $1.4 billion and again energy products accounted for the largest share. However, the drop in imports of energy products came mainly from lower volumes, not through lower prices. Following two strong quarters, profits earned by foreign direct investors decreased by $2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2006. Lower profits in the energy sector accounted for half of the drop. The deficit on trade in services rose for the fourth time in the last five quarters, up $200 million to $1.8 billion. The $1.8-billion deficit in travel was the largest in 14 years. Canadian investors bought a record amount of foreign securities in Q1. Over half of the $19 billion investment in the first quarter was in foreign bonds, as investors took advantage of the elimination of foreign content limits on RRSPs. Some $9.9 billion flowed into foreign bonds, mostly U.S. treasuries and corporate bonds. Canadians also purchased $8 billion of foreign equities in the first quarter, the second highest quarterly investment in the past four years. Over four-fifths went to buy U.S. shares. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------