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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (187723)	5/30/2006 5:03:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 281500

Iraq poised to become Iran’s main ally By Tarek Al-Issawi May 30, 2006 AP TEHRAN: To Iran’s west lies a natural ally and perhaps its most potent — if so far underused — weapon in the international fray over its nuclear programme. Iraq and Iran share a Shia majority and deep cultural and historic ties, making it likely, analysts say, that Iran could handily turn its neighbour into a proxy battleground against American forces should the United States try to punish Tehran economically or militarily. While the governments in Baghdad and Tehran were arch enemies during the rule of military dictator Saddam Hussein, all signs point to an increasingly robust relationship between the neighbours now that Shias have achieved a dominant role in the Iraqi leadership. Shias make up about 60 per cent of Iraq’s 26 million population and Sunnis around 20 per cent. Kurds, who are predominantly Sunni, make up about 15 to 20 per cent and the remainder is Christian or from other smaller sects. Many key positions now are occupied by men who took refuge in Iran to avoid oppression by the former dictator’s Baathist regime. “Iran has ties with Iraq which have not been mobilized as they could have been. The militias based in Iraq received much of their training from Iran and they have not taken any instructions yet,” said Paul Ingram of the British American Security Information Council. He said the militia organizations, which have deeply infiltrated the Iraqi security forces, would be expected to take orders from Tehran “as a result of any Western attack.” A Cairo-based analyst concurred. “The Great Satan ideology might have become dormant, but it has not vanished. If there’s an attack, it will be revived. Iraqi Shias will not take this lightly. They will not sit and watch,” said Diaa Rashwan. The Mehdi Army, loyal to firebrand anti-American Shia scholar Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Badr Brigade, the military wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, both have significant links to Iran. The latter group is led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, the turbaned pro-Iranian cleric who headed the Shia ticket that won Iraq’s national elections in January. “Iran has a clear strategic depth in Iraq and there is an alliance between Iran and the upcoming Iraqi powers. Iran hasn’t utilized that option yet and it’s a card that will be very influential,” said Iranian political analyst Mashallah Shamsolvaezin. But Iran’s reach in Iraq goes well beyond the links to the powerful armed groups. After the US-led invasion three years ago, the Iranian government quickly dispatched medical, humanitarian and religious assistance, especially to the neglected Shia cities in southern Iraq. Iran now is waiting while interest on its investment in Iraq accrues compound interest. Iraqi Shias also are at ease with the waiting game, knowing that the US-led invasion is responsible for them being at the top of the political heap for the first time in modern history. [ST: This is how to win the war and "hearts and minds" not with cluster bombs] “The Shia political class in Iraq believes that if they generally cooperate with the US and Britain, eventually they will withdraw and leave the Shias in power. So far things have worked out wonderfully (for the major Shia partiess). Why rock the boat?” asked Juan Cole, a Middle East political analyst at the University of Michigan. The United States has acknowledged Iran’s influence in Iraq, publicly calling for bilateral talks to be conducted with Zalmay Khalilzad, Washington’s ambassador to Baghdad. The Iranians, after initially warming to the possibility, have now declined, claiming the US wanted to expand the discussions beyond the mutual interest in Iraq to include the nuclear dispute. The talks, had they come off or should they happen later, would be the most public bilateral exchanges between the countries since soon after Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 that toppled pro-US Shah. With a neutral government ruling Afghanistan to the east and with Saddam gone in the west, Iran wants to assert its regional muscle and wants the international community to accept that role — including the right to develop its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. The rub is that the US and its major European allies believe or are worried that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapons. Compounding that problem is the US memory of the Islamic Revolution and the subsequent crisis after Iranians took over the American Embassy and held hostages there for 444 days. Both issues leave the West eager to contain Iranian influence. For Iran, it has serious concerns over US combat troops flanking it in Iraq and Afghanistan and looks to the Persian Gulf with unease because of the vast American military presence there as well. Iran views the Persian Gulf as its sphere of influence and sees the American presence as both a potential military threat and an attempt to control the region’s vast oil resources.—AP