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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (73261)	5/31/2006 9:00:25 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

We'll see. There are 4-year cycles in stocks. We are due for a 4-year cycle bottom this year. On average, such declines have been ~ 300-400 SP points into October, even in the bull market (1998). This may or may not hold this year. It seems the Fed's printing has averted the 9-year cycle in gold, which is now overdue for the down part of the cycle (See Tim Wood's articles on in on financialsense.com) If we are to go down big, I think, we should not exceed May highs, and get stuck in the 1280-1290 range. Our analysis tells us that if we get stuck there (as happened now), it could be weeks (up to 4 weeks) before the decline resumes. On the other hand, if 1249 is broken, we'll get a sell this week. Otherwise, this is a good low risk buy point.