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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (19221)	6/2/2006 8:09:40 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi Etch, I guess that cycle peak call can last a bit longer than some analysts may prefer to see.GG Sort of like a top or a bottom - they all go farther and last longer than they should. Copper and metals yesterday are showing signs of the tremendous volatility that builds. Once complacency stops masking the transition of the smart moneys exit - things get dicey quickly. I continue to believe and hope for a slower and steady as she goes market for the semi's and equipment makers. Since our(as a semi stock holder) day in the sun back in March of 2000 has long since past,it is important to note that many nice quiet consolidations that lead to new highs and stock splits took place in the late 80's and early 90's back when investment was more rationally allocated. Key to winning within this sector remains the same as in the past. Rightsize the company for a long term solid and more steady capex. Be sure that your R&D expenditures result in new products that gain or at least retain market share in cutting edge technology transitions. Keep your nose clean in stockholder governance issues and fight back the lure of greed within management ranks vs the transfer of wealth from the stockholders. Keep the balance sheet strong and grow revenue BOTH internally and through acquisition. There is a weeding out of weak sisters still needed.Many of which have spent their wad on failed R&D.That is not to say there is not some meat to pick off the bones of the weak sisters. I still remember the last straw that seemed to kick off the 98 rally was the very common sense merger of KLA and Tencvor. So far I see Lam doing a nice job of leading Agilent has done well in here as well. No doubt Amd and Txn have also well. Nice steps up ,followed by consolidations that pause and refresh for more strength later. Nothing wrong with investing vs speculating and paying 15% in taxes. We need to see a continuation of this move up ,but on bigger volume. If the volume doesn't come in by next wednesday,I'm looking for a restest of lows within the small caps,while hopefully the big caps get respect from a very stable backlog that is growing,the result of lower inventories and high enduser demand. The PC cycle is still being bad mouthed as it consistently outperforms 10% growth this year AGAIN. Vista is but 2 quarters away and Wimax and Evdo are making hand helds a mobile replacement to the PC. We all have become hooked on data and it is now available on the move. I've just purchased a Treo 700.I'm a slow learner and never an early adopter - but I have to tell you this Treo is such a nice step up from my Motorola phone (which I admittedly wore out). Collectively I spend less on my P.C. with dsl and my Treo with wireless internet than I did with my dial up PC and flip top Motorola phone back in 2000. The speed ,capability,and ease of use is incredible and no doubt all huge upgrades. Give me a better and easier to use Vista that gives me convergence onmy TV, laptop,and desk top and I'll show you a huge 2007 in my personal expenditures on techie like products. I believe we are just around the corner from a huge demand led growth spike. Any major dips in here (like the one we've just endured) are wonderful buying opportunities. If we get one more retest (there is plenty of time for that yet to occur) it will be a gift. Bob