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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John McCarthy who wrote (62521)6/2/2006 8:22:20 AM
From: John McCarthy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Mish

One more if you don't mind.

There are various articles talking to how China should
re-mix its reserve holdings and in effect switch
out of the dollar and into gold.

re: latest example
financialexpress.com

On the surface of it makes sense .... but what I am
NOT buying about this logic is the following ...

If China moved - to use an example - 1/5 of its dollar
reserve into GOLD - by virtue of the 'invisible hand'
it would PANIC the rest of the world's dollar holders
and - in effect - decapitate (sp?) the dollar.

Simply put - all other dollar reserve holders would
SELL THEIR DOLLARS - (to whom?- an sucker they could
find - which means themselves as a group) - and the
net effect of all this - is that the VALUE of their
current dollar holdings would decline dramatically versus
a DO NOTHING strategy.

Any thoughts on this?

regards,
John McCarthy



To: John McCarthy who wrote (62521)6/2/2006 3:21:24 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
John I just finished a piece on the carry trade (which is the bigger picture of the liquidity mess) and perhaps that will help. Agora has first rights to it but I suspect it will be out in a day or two. My best guess Monday. One they publish it I am free to put it on my blog.

Mish