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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (62543)	6/2/2006 5:23:36 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

a reported 'real GDP growth' of 3% today translates into ZERO growth, which means that any given quarter where growth is reported to be below 3% is in reality an economic contraction. i think we could just look at other proxies to GDP growth. if oil consumption is growing, then the economy is growing. oil consumption is in fact still growing (although much more slowly than declared GDP, which is to be expected even if GDP stats are not lies as per my post on relation btw gdp/CL consumption). when oil consumption stops growing, and perhaps contracts, then we will have a real-time indicator that the economy is contracting.

To: ild who wrote (62543)	6/2/2006 6:14:41 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think Trotsky is making a mountain out of a big hill. There is a RE bubble but it is by no means evenly affecting the entire population. It is big, it is very important and it will have an impact -- but on its own, the RE bubble is something that markets can work their way through, albeit painfully for many and a disaster for some. Those who foresaw the RE bubble are right, but the bubble they see is larger than the bubble as it appears in real life.