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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TGPTNDR who wrote (200162)6/2/2006 4:14:03 PM
From: combjellyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
"Problem is that's wafer starts not wafer outs."

That is true. But they still have a lot more capacity than last year at this time. And they keep adding more.

"Has AMD said that they're running production stuff now or will be by July1?"

You mean Fab36? They claim they shipped for revenue, i.e. packaged product in March. It might have only been 1 or two on March 31 right before midnight, but...

So let that be the touchstone. Zero is April 1. That'd be ~15k 200mm wafer equivalents packaged and ready to ship in Q2, or about 16% of Fab30's capability. Not necessarily sold, many are probably headed for inventory. For Q3, that would be 45k 200mm wafer equivalents, or half of Fab30s capability. Sales are usually greater in Q3, but severely backend loaded. One big question at this point is what percentage is dual core? I suspect not a lot, given that AMD tends to sell a lot of Semprons. Still, unless sales are way up in Q3, AMD is going to do a lot of inventory building in Q3.



To: TGPTNDR who wrote (200162)6/2/2006 4:34:42 PM
From: PetzRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
Digitimes throws a smear into an otherwise reasonable article: digitimes.com
(emphasis added)
Taiwan chipset and mobo makers feel Intel-ATI tie-up makes more sense
Monica Chen, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DigiTimes.com [Friday 2 June 2006]

Taiwan-based chipset and motherboard makers, in response to recent speculations that ATI Technologies is an acquisition target for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), feel that an Intel buyout of ATI would make more sense, according to industry sources.
so which is it, "chipset & mobo makers" or "industry sources
Unspecified chipset and motherboard makers called the possible AMD-ATI acquisition as less logical than an Intel-ATI acquisition. According to the makers, insufficient capacity and unstable shipment process concerns have been a long-term issue for AMD, which will have limited capital after it sinks US$2.5 billion into revamping its Dresden fab. Buying ATI, whose total stock is valued at over US$4.2 billion and does not provide any production facilities, is not a reasonable idea for AMD, stated the makers.
if you're going to complain about the 2.5B, then don't complain about "insufficient capacity"
In addition, AMD has maintained a close partnership with ATI's rival Nvidia and third-party chipset suppliers Silicon Integrated System (SiS) and VIA Technologies, both of which compete with ATI in the same area, the makers indicated. If AMD decides to buy ATI to pave the way for own-brand chipset production, it will lead to unbalance in the chipset industry, according to the makers.

To date, ATI is the only "official" chipset supplier for Intel, the makers noted. AMD buying out ATI would definitely hurt Intel, but the makers wonder if it would be necessary.

Consolidating ATI's graphics core technology would allow Intel to expand its share in the global graphics processor market, said the makers. According to Jon Peddie Research (JPR), Intel led in the global graphics CPU market in the first quarter of 2006, grabbing a 39.1% share, followed by ATI with 28.7% and Nvidia with 19%.
...precisely why the FTC should not allow it -- the two biggest combining to have 68% market share vs. 19% for Nvidia.
Apjit Walia, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, who was quoted in a Forbes story saying that an AMD-ATI merger was likely, stated that AMD's recent announcement to expand capacity was consistent with the synergies of an ATI acquisition, as ATI is a rare-buy in the semiconductor space and that an AMD-ATI tie-up would be good for the graphics industry.

Related stories:...


And as for Intel having lots of cash, after $1B for writeoffs/charges + $4.5B for ATI, it would leave them with $3.5B, less than a $B more than AMD, & the equivalent of just 1 month of sales.

Petz