Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bond_bubble who wrote (62601)	6/3/2006 4:12:07 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Shades, how come you are assuming that, people dont have $500 to pay for filing bankruptcy, but have enough money to pay for the debt with devalued currency? My friends have the money Jay - or could easily get it - they are just too lazy to make the time - you really don't relate to the "slacker" generation do you? It's not necessarily about money with these people. Also, you are assuming, people are lazy to file bankruptcy but are energetic to pay the debt with interest. No you completely misunderstand what I wrote - they take on debt and take any freebies or handouts anyone will give them - but they will not repay the debts and they will not bankrupt against the debts - both of those actions require WORK or EFFORT or signing thier name to a piece of paper - have you watched the movie I keep posting pictures of - THE BIG LEBOWSKI - that is not just fiction - I have MANY friends that are just like walter and "the dude" and Jesus - etc etc You have to be more serious than that. Again you need to watch the movie - at the very start he writes a post dated check for 50 cents or so to buy a small carton of milk - the processing fees and wages of all the people involved handling his check will be far more than 50 cents no - you are the one that is trying to keep a straight face in what is truly a comedy of errors. BTW, not filing bankruptcy and not paying debt/interest is ALSO bankruptcy (may be "unofficial" bankruptcy). Right - many of my college educated friends are living just like lebowski. Unofficial bankruptcy - I like that Jay - is that like saying someone who is not seeking employment anymore is a retired multimillionaire? Message 22509434 BLS simply classifies those folks as "contented and RETIRED multi-millionaires" who don't need a job! Hey in the movie Jay the poor broke slacker lebowski got confused with the rich millionaire lebowski - just like the BLS and thier funny numbers - it can happen to the best of us I guess. Also, you and Chromatic keep making the assumption that Ben will fly with his helicopter money. I don't know - he might. I am not taking a hard stance or investing 100% one way or the other - he might - maybe not - I spread the wealth around and diversify - General Chen and El Mat both tell me 100% contradictory things about to happen with Iran - many here - very well read and intelligent can't decide on inflation or deflation or what mix of both is the certain future - I can't predict the future and niether can you - I take spocks view - the world is complicated - women even more so - diversify and enjoy the ride. And I've told you many times, by deflation, I mean credit deflation and not CPI becoming negative. Now, if CPI is positive, will Ben still fly his helicopter money? Well succo and greenberg and the 1946 fed president all talk about inflation and taxes and financial engineering - it makes my head hurt - so I wrote Chromatic yesterday and here is what he said: I have been right on the mark with my predictions of government spending. Governemnt is increasing spending in order to make up for the lack of economic development. Just like in the last 300 years starting in 1690 when a tax based money was first invented in the west, governemnt always tries to print its way out of its mess. This is how the many great public works projects of the past few centuries were created. Right now it is as if the government has no budget constraints, no matter what they actually say, but in practice the various agencies have been given a blank check. Therefore the amount of work out of the Federal Government sector is increasing at a huge rate, at least from my perspective. This trend will continue until politcal and ecomonic conditions force it otherwse. David Mindock Now I see talk of a fence across the mexico border, another war - this time with Iran, A mega-embassy project in Iraq that haliburton is going CHACHING on. David (Chromatic) said he is in the middle of a huge project in washington DC now fighting the dilbert finance mangers in washington who are more wasteful than the girl from Clueless in the Middle of the beverley hills shopping mall on a platinum credit card from daddy. What if $ devaluation ALONE creates inflation inspite of credit bust? i.e $ devalues 30% and credit falls 20%, it is credit deflation (20%) and yet, price inflation will be positive. In this scenario, why would Ben bring his helicopter. Ok - I read central bank after central bank worldwide is trying to manage a slow fall of the dollar and trying to get thier domestic sectors to increase spending while we get our brittney's to slow it down some - look what Regli told me 2 months back - Message 22312829 If you dont believe in this scenario, then you will never understand deflation. I read this is what the central bankers may WANT to do - slow long drawn out dollar fall and change domestic spending habits in various countries - but W. Buffet says perhaps things will happen fast and can not be controlled - what does the 8 ball say? Herb and Maudlin is saying people are taking less debt huh? How can that NOT mean deflation? It is the classic argument for deflation!!! People dont take loans from banks to load up debt - this is exactly what causes deflation. I'm not sure how people can see this as prelude to hyperinflation. Look succo has been talking about suckers for awhile now - many here think he is a financial genius - like trotsky - general chen - the wiz - the philster - pick your guru and follow like a good lemming. I think boom can be followed by bust - I think most everyone would agree with that - but not necessarily all sectors all the time. From what I have read in the 30's aggregate housing never fell below pre boom levels. I read www.dailyrotten.com everyday and realize that there are many IRRATIONAL market participants and all your theories and expectations and market timing can be upset by these ILLOGICAL agents. Behavioral Finance is tricky. According to Minsky, Ah so that is your Guru - ok. if people stop taking less debt, it implies that the ponzi scheme will come unravelling. For hyper inflation to happen, people should take more and more debt. What do you and minsky know that fool Succo doesn't? Economists can be wrong - look at this latest on Paul Krugman from luskin: poorandstupid.com WAIT. THERE'S A QUESTION FROM THE AUDIENCE... There seems to be a little flurry of taking Paul Krugman seriously as an economist, with the publication of David Warsh's Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations (such as here and here). Robert Musil has just one question, though: What example, in the real world, is a single meaningful application of Paul Krugman's trade insights anywhere outside of academe and academic journals? I am aware of nothing. Update... here's another good one from Robert. Update 2... A reader who requests anonymity has an answer to the question. Paul Krugman and his theories and beliefs have made me money. Seriously. That's because I'm a Paul Krugman contrarian. I remember a lesson from a finance professor at Wharton. He stated that the most useless person in the world is someone that is right half of the time. Those that are right more often than chance should be watched carefully, and mimicked. And those that are wrong more often than chance should be watched VERY carefully. The person that is consistently wrong will provide you with opportunities to create wealth again and again. Paul Krugman is such a person. I have made money by betting the opposite of what Paul thinks, both in legitimate financial markets and "illegal" betting sites. For example, when he became convinced that Dean was the man to win the election, I made money on Kerry winning the primary. When Paul was convinced that Kerry would win the whole election, I bet on Bush. Paul last year said the bubble in the housing market would burst. I knew that I could wait a year, and any bursting would be very slow than very sudden. Paul is convinced that growth is slow and that unemployment is high -- I've been long the market (and very happy) since he turned into a sourpuss. I conservatively estimate that Paul Krugman has earned me an 'excess return' of about $25,000 on my capital over the past five years, adding about 5% more to my portfolio annually. The Times Select fee is well worth the price, as it lets me know what Paul thinks. So I can bet the opposite. That is the ONLY reason why people say, hyperinflation ends in deflation. Even puplava says, it is hyperinflation first and then deflation. i.e at some point in hyperinflation, debt stops flowing. And hence results in deflation. Ok - are you telling me Brittney is right at the end of her debt binge and you are going to invest accordingly - so if I understand right you have liquidated every asset and are hiding the cash under the mattress right? That within 3 months I can get the 300K house down the street for 100K? No that is not what you are telling me? Ok then are you telling me you have sold everything and bought shiny metal gold - and in 3 months you will trade a couple coins for that 4000 sq ft mansion on the beach? No you are not telling me that either? Then I am confused what you are telling me - Russ said he sold his gold - and put all his wealth into US treasuries eh? Richard Benson sold his new york real estate 4 years ago and bought I bonds and tips - he fugged up royally but he was already a millionaire Jay so he needed safety and risk aversion far more than he needed wild wealth appreciation. I don't know how much more debt brittney can take on - I don't know how long the "engineers" can keep us floating over the edge of the cliff so many here say we are at - I know predicting the future is pretty hard - Jay I just watched a special on the oracle at delphi from the "decoding the past" history channel show. erowid.org Oracle at Delphi May Have Been Inhaling Ethylene by Erowid v1.0 March 2002 The scientists involved concluded the predictions were from inhaling ethylene.