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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cruzbay who wrote (200212)	6/3/2006 8:01:30 AM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"1. AMD continuing to take share in notebook PCs." We've been told this isn't possible. So this whole analysis is wrong...

To: cruzbay who wrote (200212)	6/3/2006 9:20:34 AM
From: tecate78732	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Well, Intel sells laptop chips that don't have to be "centrino".

To: cruzbay who wrote (200212)	6/3/2006 10:01:53 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"Prudential may be accused of being over-optimistic" It's all relative. In a world comprising "skittish at the best of times" AMD investors, any negative media sentiment, with merit or without, is too frequently met with a severe case of AMD investor angst. Prudential is the only analysis I've seen that even attempts to reconcile current AMD progress/actions with the 33% marketshare goal in 2008. Assuming current unitshare (as distinguished from Revshare) in the 20% range, that goal represents a unitshare gain by AMD of 1% per quarter, on average for the next 2 years. Obviously at the 50% level, Pru's top end, it's about 3% per quarter. INTC has flubbed so badly with P4, that AMD has gained serious traction in all sectors, both consumer and enterprise. Even if Conroe lives up to Doug's imaginative (at this time) heights, the burned bridges INTC has left in its P4 wake, not to mention its history of (illegally (?)) strongarming OEM's will not be readily restored. Besides, Doug's best case is 40% Conroe mix in INTC offerings (or 30% of te market) by year end, which leaves 70% up for grabs assuming that, as Doug seems to believe, Conroe uptake will be 100% of what INTC can deliver to market. No wonder AMD exec's are "cool" with their current plan (sandbagging (?)), because even in Doug's best case Conroe scenario, AMD continues to eat up share as no one wants anything to do with 60% of INTC's P4 mix, which as we're now witnessing, INTC apparently can't un;oad at any price. So, is Prudential overly optimistic, or has the "skittish AMD investor" once again lost perspective amidst the unrealistically imagined impact of Conroe?

To: cruzbay who wrote (200212)	6/3/2006 12:35:26 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Separately, we attended AMD's analyst day. Highlights include: 1) AMD plans to catch, if not surpass Intel at the 45 nm process node, 2) a new low-power notebook MPU architecture by 2007, 3) a true quad-core architecture by mid-07 which could distance AMD from Intel at the high-end servers and desktops, 4) benchmark by AMD showing 15%-30% power advantage of AMD Opteron over Woodcrest. Wow, they really drank the kool-aid. Surpass Intel with the 45nm process?! One has to laugh. I think they are sweating over their high stock price targets from January, which they keep moving up as the stock moves down. Sort of Mosesmann in reverse.