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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4244)	6/3/2006 11:44:38 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 24213

As Robert has suggested, the key question regarding PO is how long we have to adjust. Robert thinks we have years; I think we have months. The mathematical HL model indicates that Saudi Arabia (SA) is now at about the same point at which the prior swing producer, Texas, entered a permanent and irreversible decline in production. Credible news reports are indicating that SA oil production is now down about 5% year over year (which is actually quite close to the long term decline rate that Texas has shown). The news releases coming out of SA suggest that they are cutting production becuase the market is "oversupplied." This may actually be partially true. I suspect that the heavy oil market is oversupplied, but I also suspect that this is temporary, given what is probably a very high decline rate in the Cantarell Field, the second largest producing field in the world. In any case, anyone else find it odd that the largest oil producer in the world is delivering less oil to the market when oil prices are trading in a record high (nominal) price range? I am always interested when price and production/import patterns don't seem to make sense. ] westexas on Saturday June 03, 2006 at 10:57 AM EST theoildrum.com