To: TobagoJack who wrote (6941 ) 6/4/2006 8:22:53 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 217752 capital spreading more evenly! Shifting Demand and Wealth -- Marc Faber dailyreckoning.com "...For much of the last 200 years, developing countries, where many of the world’s natural resources are located, had trade and current account deficits with the industrialized world. These deficits were a constant drag on these countries’ ability to accumulate wealth. But now, through its current account deficit, the United States is shifting around $800 billion annually to the economically emerging world. This represents a huge shift in wealth from the rich United States to the current account surplus countries. That this shift in wealth stimulates their economies and consumption, and along with it their own demand for commodities, should be clear. (Rising domestic energy demand in Indonesia amidst falling production has turned the country into an oil net importer!) Now, for most countries a current account deficit the size of that of the United States would lead to some sort of crisis (for example, the Asian crisis of 1997) and then to a curbing of consumption. However, in the case of the United States, which is endowed with a reserve currency, trade and current account deficits are simply financed by “money printing.” ... when commodity prices rise, their economies are, as in the case of the Middle East, turbo-charged. GDP per capita then soars and leads to a consumption and investment boom, which then increases these countries’ own demand for commodities. This is particularly true for resource-rich countries that have a large population and also explains why, in the 19th century, when agriculture was still the dominant sector in the U.S. economy, rising grain prices led to economic booms, while declining commodity prices were associated with crises. (In recent years, financial markets have begun to have a similar impact on economic activity as agriculture had in the 19th century: rising stock markets = boom; falling stock markets = bust.)