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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pgerassi who wrote (200323)	6/3/2006 9:42:16 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

>> That calculation forgets about the inventory in the OEMs. Dear Pete, The explicit calculation does not contain it, because I have no way of knowing the magnitude of non-returnable channel inventory. But it is justified to expect it is not more than 2 or 3 weeks (beyond the returnable portion, which is known to be approx 1 week). For one thing, OEM's such as Dell and H-P do not carry any inventory. Let's say 40% of the market is white box, and those carry 4-5 weeks. That will still be easily depleted if Intel cuts out old chips by the amount of NGMA production. Obviously, if Intel continues to produce P4's at full blast, then un-sellable inventory will continue to increase. I don't think that is a reasonable expectation. Sarmad