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To: pgerassi who wrote (200350)	6/5/2006 9:45:52 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Pete, regarding the points you raised; >> IDC and Mercury state that Intel has over 8 weeks of inventory in the channel. I've looked and can't find a link to a current inventory estimate. Where did you find that ? But assuming the inventory figure is correct, it has two problems. 1- re >> Suddenly 3-4 weeks becomes 5-8 weeks and then pushes to 7-10 weeks at lower prices. prices should not affect number of units in inventory channel. They stay same regardless of what prices do. 2- stating that inventory is x number of weeks is ambiguous because if April sales were down 50%, suddenly inventories will seem to double, when in fact they have not budged. So, if one is going to use weeks, one has to use running average or something similar. In reading a number of past stories about Intel inventory, it seems that $3.2B was considered very high, and $2.6B was considered too low. That was back in '04, when sales levels were similar to now. So I think that even if there is a "severe" overhang, it will not be over $1B. And since Intel will likely sell over $15B of its old stuff before NGMA becomes dominant in mid-'07, then Intel has many months to work down this inventory. And therefor I don't expect the dire predictions will come to pass. Sarmad