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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl Worth who wrote (24045)	6/5/2006 2:14:34 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78719

I did not sell OSHC to make a macroeconomic bet against the US$. I simply believe that RBS.L is a cheaper stocks and less vulnerable to higher short term interest rates. The local thrift live on interest income and more specifically on the spread between loans and deposits and are bound to suffer with the St interest rates as high as they are now. RBS is cheap, has a diverse income stream (Fee's, investments, loans, insurance) and as a large bank (operating in GB, US, Europe and Asia) and subsequently can cope much better with diminishing loan spreads. I also believe that online/money market savings accounts could threaten the ability of thrift's to collect cheap deposits in the future. That's a very long term trend and not a reason to sell those stocks today or tomorrow.

To: Carl Worth who wrote (24045)	6/17/2006 12:05:55 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78719

>>I thought the saying was "the sky is falling"<< I wouldn't go that far unless you just want to continue to pooh pooh the Bear. Indeed, if Bernanke continues to raise Fed Funds beyond the next FOMC meeting (June 28-29), he creates a situation where the US consumer can't afford to borrow and US bankers will not dare to lend. On the other hand, if Bernanke stops raising rates, he risks a further dive in the US Dollar. As an old-fashioned Hegelian who respects the System (in a way), I'd say it's time to "pause". However, should Bernanke panic and start easing, its lights out for the USD and new all time highs for Gold. I see nothing wrong with a little inflation to preserve the foundation of the system. But then again, I'm not Helicopter Ben Bernankle.