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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (11491)	6/5/2006 8:16:15 AM
From: Murray Grummitt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12410

I got an oversold bounce from beyond -200 on my CCI on Friday just before noon but I used the bounce to scale into a short position on the NQ & ER2 to hold over the weekend. I have quite a large position because they "Painted the Table" before the weekend. I was amazed to see this happen with the TRIN staying high and closing at 1.27! Both the SOX & INX closed lower on friday so there is a 70% chance we will close down today. How does one determine which day of the expiry month one should switch from trading the current contract to the next expiry contract?

To: Real Man who wrote (11491)	6/5/2006 10:20:34 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 12410

>>I just think we could be in a secular bear market.<< We are in a bear market. Just compare the S@P 500 Index to a neutral currency, Gold, over the past few years and you'll see that that is the case. Of course, most people will rationalize that this massive loss of value doesn't matter to them because they pay their bills in US Dollars. The decline in the USD has been a big cushion which has masked the drop in value of the US stock market in recent months. If the dollar continues to decline, the entire bear market is likely to represent only a minor 10% correction in stocks. Although I'm short term bullish, this is a countertrend, or bear market rally. Those kind of rallies can collapse quickly as the main trend reassets itself. My bet is that we grind higher through June expiration making those puts expire. I'll let you know when I see the main trend reassert itself. At the moment, I'm hiding out in AZN.