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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (7013)6/7/2006 12:18:32 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217644
 
I would like to disagree with "the real economy is not strong"

Let's look around the globe -

EU
Germany getting better, Eastern Europe mostly growing.
France maybe flat, but UK is all right.
Spain, Ireland, doing great, Norway has oil money...
and there is no place that is really BAD.

Asia
Japan - The "Been down so long it looks like up to me" phase is over, they are having bubbles (Livedoor), and moving interest rates up.

This country is your best argument for a weak economy, the bank of Japan had to reverse course on the liquidity removal 2 weeks ago.

Korea - at least okay to my limited knowledge.
Taiwan - same

China - still dynamic and growing. Biggest problem is high raw material cost vs. pricing pressures.

India - growing rapidly, stock market gyrating because momentum playing hedge funds.

Russia - Rolling in oil money.

Middle East - Lots of oil money for now.

South America

Brazil - Real economy is doing great ;-)

Resource countries - Australia, Canada, South Africa.
Very well, thank you.

*********

The unwinding is likely to have some bumps, but the central banks will back off before it crunches too bad - they don't need to replay the Paul Volker harsh medicine, enough people remember that or 2000-2001.

********

5% nominal yield will look good when year over year inflation goes under 1 %.

5 % looks real nice when gold copper and maybe oil is comming down.

So I will be looking at FAX the Aberdeen Income closed end fund.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (7013)6/7/2006 12:54:05 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Respond to of 217644
 
ta da!

number two on the thesis list.