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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7019)	6/7/2006 3:39:42 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217655

That's a very good point - how much real physical business (meaning not paper asset games) depends on super liquidity. I think there is a wide band available between cooling down the asset bubble and pushing into a hard recession, in MOST countries. The band should be widest in the resource countries, and developing countries with resources, like Brazil and Russia. The band is likely to be narrow in the US, but could be fixed by a lower USD making imports more expensive, so domestic manufacturers, cars especially, can gain market share and unit volume. It seems the other way to handle this problem is to switch from one side of the band to the other quickly, while applying various fiscal policy band aids and subsidies. This also confuses most people, so when things come out even half way right, they then conclude your are a genius. (See Alan Greenspan) The US is still a large importer and exporter, and changes there can make a big difference in the US economy.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (7019)	6/7/2006 3:59:03 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217655

I think also that the central bankers think they can reduce liquidity without sending the world economy into a crash. Now I don't think central bankers are infallible, but I will guess the odds are with them.