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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (188644)	6/7/2006 10:07:11 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Regional war against Iran and shiaa part of iraq? It could develop into that. What's motivating the various interests in the region? Think about the major motivators are for the leaders in Iran. Ahmadinejad and his "Supreme Guide", Khamenei, have something to prove, and if they don't prove it, they both lose face. And consequently, they lose power to the moderate reformers in Iran. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad want to control Karbala and Najaf. In addition, they want to control Samarra, where the "Mahdist" adherents believe the Mahdi disappeared, and some believe is lies in dormancy in a cave, awaiting his awakening which will then beckon in the final days and the re-appearance of Isa (Jesus). news.bbc.co.uk washingtonpost.com shianews.com These locations are TERRIBLY IMPORTANT to the Iranians religious leaders who are seeking to re-entrench their authority and re-envigorate their Islamic State. And of course, controlling one of the largest repositories of crude oil provides them a potent economic weapon/resource from which to finance their agenda. So what can the Sunni Muslims do in the face of this Iranian agenda? They will have to unite to confront it, of course. Wasn't this the reason that most Arab states provided financial and physical support to Saddam when he waged war against Iran? They perceived the threat that militant Shi'ism presented to their particular interpretation of the Islamic faith. It threatened the Wahabbists in Saudi Arabia who control Mecca and Medina and set the tone of Islamic beliefs from there. Can they guarantee that the Shi'ites would stop with the Iraqi holy sites and not cast their eyes upon controlling Mecca and Medina as well? This is potentially far more serious than your scenario portends. Certainly while Ahmadinejad and and Muqtada Al-Sadr are factored into the mix. Hawk

To: michael97123 who wrote (188644)	6/13/2006 10:08:06 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi michael97123; Re: "Regional war against Iran and shiaa part of iraq? Hell then iran does need the bomb. I think you are wrong. I think sunniland is where the atrocities will be and there will be battles at the borders. Shiaa and kurds will take those border areas and populations of shiaa will move into the shiaa state and leave sunniland." I think you're making that rather unreasonable assumption that the surrounding nations will stay out of it. War is how humans figure out who is wrong about the basic question of who has greater strength relative to a chunk of territory. The territory under discussion is the Sunni parts of Iraq. If the participants were restricted to be only the inhabitants of Iraq I think you would be correct. But there have been very few Arab civil wars that did not involve military involvement by other Arab states. The reason for this is that the Arab states have very deep ethnic bonds. When a child cries in Haditha, its cry is heard, and more importantly understood, throughout the Arab world. When England got involved in a war in Europe (twice) the US eventually got sucked in too. The reason is the same. When Winston Churchill spoke, the American people listened, and understood. We speak the same language. A civil war in Iraq could involve a lot more than just Iraq. I'm not saying it has too. I'm saying that there is a substantial probability of it. -- Carl