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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (188743)	6/7/2006 7:27:33 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Sun thinks the ayotollahs are not the revolutionaries they once were. Well, I'm sure that with the reformist movement in Iran, there are some Ayatollahs who recognize that they have no concept of how to run a modern economy that doesn't depend solely upon oil revenues. Now Dubai and the other UAE emirates seems to be using their oil wealth to diversify their economic base. Of course, they don't have the millions of people to take care of, so there is plenty of oil money to go around. But with Iran, their population, being very young, is really looking for something different, IMO. I look at Ahmadinejad as the face of a Islamist "last stand" in Iran. But it's a powerful force that unless discredited in the face of multi-lateral international pressure, could render reforms a mute point, or something that will take years to come about. Young people obviously are impressionable. We all were when we were young. And they can often be convinced to follow fanatical beliefs that lead to war and violence, if only because they are looking to impress their "masters" and gain entree to whatever system they consider to be in power at the time.. But they can also become the foundation of tremendous social progress, and political openess. I wish I knew which side of the fence that the majority of Iranian young adults are sitting on right now. Are they really buying into Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, or are they cynical enough to recognize that he's not likely to resolve their problems, nor meet their desires and expectations. Getting al quaeda and bin laden are job #1. Sure.. but the Shi'ite extremists are potentially just as bad. IMO, it's unwise for us to merely focus upon the Salafist/Takfirists militants while ignoring the Shi'ite versions like Muqtada Al Sadr and Ahmadinejad. Hawk