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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (188755)	6/8/2006 11:22:19 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

Key with iran is that we don't want to give the ayotollahs and Ahmadinejad the nationalist card to play. Thats what an american attack does. Any US led attack is far off. There's plenty of diplomatic and economic options still available. Iran imports a tremendous percentage of its refined petroleum products. Any sanctions will effectively cut off this supply, except with the possibility of Azerbijian being a "leak" in the blockade. And so long as their sanctions are implemented under the umbrella of the UNSC, he'll be denied the ability to assert that it's strictly US directed. To be a nationalist, he has to deliver the "goods" that will entice young people to rally to his cause. This is going to be difficult to achieve if the globe rallies against the Iranians. Sure.. they could understand US antipathy.. It's been there for years. But Europe and the rest of the world? That's going to be difficult for him to explain to the Iranian people, IMO. Hawk